All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Nashville
YesNo
Dallas
YesNo
Detroit
YesNo
New York City
YesNo
London
YesNo
Denver
YesNo
Miami
YesNo
Las Vegas
YesNo
Washington DC
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.09 07:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. Miami (99c) & Dallas (99c): Effectively 'Yes'. Waymo officially launched public services in Miami (Jan 22) and Dallas (Feb 24). While they use a rolling waitlist, this constitutes 'General Public' access (distinct from closed/employee-only pilots) and is marketed as a commercial launch. 2. Nashville (40c): Significantly overvalued. Waymo only removed safety drivers for 'driverless testing' on Feb 9, 2026. While a public launch is planned for 'this year', the cycle from initial driverless testing to public access typically exceeds the remaining 3.5 months (June 30 deadline). 3. Las Vegas (35c): High risk. Official announcements target 'Summer 2026'. Since summer begins June 21, a launch in July/August is statistically more probable, making the June 30 cutoff a coin flip at best. 4. Others: Still in early testing or scheduled for late 2026.
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Rule Risk
The critical risk lies in the definition of 'invite-only'. Waymo's launches (e.g., in Miami) typically follow a 'Waitlist' model where users must sign up and wait for an invite to ride. While media calls this a 'launch', strictly under the rule 'Limited pilot... or invite-only service will not qualify', this status should resolve to No. If Miami or other cities remain waitlisted by June 30, this creates significant resolution ambiguity.
Hedging
GOOGL
UBER
Waymo is a subsidiary of Alphabet (GOOGL), and its expansion speed directly affects the market's valuation of autonomous driving commercialization. Uber is a key operating partner (e.g., in Austin, Atlanta), so any new joint launches (like Nashville) are bullish for Uber. Tesla (TSLA), as a main competitor in Robotaxi, faces direct competitive pressure from Waymo's rapid deployment.
Movers
Mar 06, 2026 - Mar 09, 2026: Las Vegas spiked from 27.5c to 47c, driven by speculative rotation into the 'next' city following Dallas's successful launch, despite the ambiguous 'Summer 2026' official timeline.
Mar 05, 2026 - Mar 09, 2026: Detroit crashed from 23c to 9c, as the market corrected a previous speculative spike that likely misinterpreted 'winter testing' news as an imminent launch signal.
Divergence
Nashville (85c) shows significant divergence from operational reality. The price implies a near-certain outcome, yet the city only began fully driverless testing (removing safety drivers) in Feb 2026. Historically, the gap between 'removing safety drivers' and 'public launch' exceeds 4 months, suggesting the market is severely underpricing the timeline risk. Conversely, Las Vegas (47c) is fairly priced, reflecting the uncertainty of a 'Summer' launch meeting the June 30 cutoff.
