What are the exact resolution rules if the Chatbot Arena (lmarena.ai) leaderboard stops updating or goes permanently offline before December 31?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the exact resolution rules if the Chatbot Arena (lmarena.ai) leaderboard stops updating or goes permanently offline before December 31?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the major upcoming AI model releases (e.g., next-gen models from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek) that act as potential catalysts to disrupt the current Chatbot Arena rankings before the end of the year?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the major upcoming AI model releases (e.g., next-gen models from OpenAI, Google, or DeepSeek) that act as potential catalysts to disrupt the current Chatbot Arena rankings before the end of the year?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering the resolution date is December 31, 2026, is the potential return of betting on a specific AI company worth the 7-month capital lock-up opportunity cost compared to risk-free yields in DeFi?

AI-powered analysis for: Considering the resolution date is December 31, 2026, is the potential return of betting on a specific AI company worth the 7-month capital lock-up opportunity cost compared to risk-free yields in DeFi?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

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241 days 23 hrs

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? - AI Found +34¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 01:01

Top Undervalued

+34¢

xAI(No)

+24.5¢

OpenAI(Yes)

+12.5¢

ByteDance(No)

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? AI analysis: • +34¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Given that the resolution is based on the overall #1 spot in the Chatbot Arena, only top-tier AI gia...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

xAI

YesNo

49¢

51¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+34¢

OpenAI

YesNo

20.5¢

79.5¢

45¢

55¢

+24.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 14 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

GOOGL

MSFT

Securing the #1 spot on AI leaderboards reflects a company's technological moat in the AI arms race. If giants like Google or Microsoft (as a proxy/partner for OpenAI) release a disruptive, chart-topping next-gen model near year-end, it often drives tradable stock price movements around 1-5%. Additionally, shifts in top-tier AI leadership exert a mild sentiment impact on the broader Nasdaq 100 index.

Divergence

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream AI industry consensus dictates that the race for top-tier models is primarily concentrated among OpenAI, Google, Anthropic (unlisted), and potentially Meta or DeepSeek. However, this prediction market assigns a highly inflated winning probability of 24%-26% to all remaining marginal or non-core AI contenders (such as Meituan, Z.ai, Amazon). This price distortion, likely due to extremely low liquidity, strongly conflicts with mainstream expert technical assessments.