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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
xAI
YesNo
OpenAI
YesNo
Z.ai
YesNo
DeepSeek
YesNo
Meta
YesNo
Baidu
YesNo
Mistral
YesNo
Nvidia
YesNo
Meituan
YesNo
Alibaba
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
There is a massive structural mispricing in the market: The current top two contenders on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Anthropic's Claude 4.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro) are NOT listed options. Under the rules, if an unlisted company holds the #1 spot, all listed options resolve to 'No'. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is ~85 cents, implying only a 15% chance that Anthropic or Google maintains their lead through June 30, which contradicts their current dominance. Z.ai is significantly undervalued; search data places their GLM-5 model in the top 3 on some benchmarks, yet they trade at only 7 cents. Conversely, xAI and OpenAI carry excessive premiums relying on a future 'comeback'.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The latest Chatbot Arena leaderboard (March) shows Anthropic (Claude 4.6) and Google (Gemini 3.1) in the top two spots, yet neither is a 'Yes' option in this market. The market pricing (Sum of Yes ~85c) falsely implies an 85% probability that one of the listed companies will overtake the current leaders by June. Additionally, search data places Z.ai (Rank 3) above xAI (Rank 4) and OpenAI (Rank 6), yet Z.ai trades at a fraction of their price (7c vs ~26c), indicating severe brand bias.
