[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page and the lmarena.ai leaderboard to compare the current odds of top contenders (OpenAI, DeepSeek, xAI) against their actual Arena Elo scores. Who is currently #1? Is the Elo gap between the leader and second place within a 'statistically insignificant' margin? Is the market mispricing by overvaluing legacy leaders (OpenAI) while underestimating surging newcomers (DeepSeek)?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page and the lmarena.ai leaderboard to compare the current odds of top contenders (OpenAI, DeepSeek, xAI) against their actual Arena Elo scores. Who is currently #1? Is the Elo gap between the leader and second place within a 'statistically insignificant' margin? Is the market mispricing by overvaluing legacy leaders (OpenAI) while underestimating surging newcomers (DeepSeek)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on recent tech news, developer tweets, and Github activity, outline the release roadmaps for next-gen models from OpenAI (GPT-5/Orion), Meta (Llama 4), and xAI (Grok 3). Which company is most likely to drop a 'State-of-the-Art' model before June 30 that could trigger an immediate flip of the leaderboard's top spot?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on recent tech news, developer tweets, and Github activity, outline the release roadmaps for next-gen models from OpenAI (GPT-5/Orion), Meta (Llama 4), and xAI (Grok 3). Which company is most likely to drop a 'State-of-the-Art' model before June 30 that could trigger an immediate flip of the leaderboard's top spot?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Data Source Reliability & Rule Details Check: specifically investigate the 'Style control unchecked' and 'Any amount of time' rules regarding the LMSYS update mechanism. If a newly released model briefly hits #1 due to high variance (low sample size) and then drops, does this count as a 'Yes'? Does LMSYS enforce a 'minimum vote threshold' before a model appears on the main leaderboard?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Data Source Reliability & Rule Details Check: specifically investigate the 'Style control unchecked' and 'Any amount of time' rules regarding the LMSYS update mechanism. If a newly released model briefly hits #1 due to high variance (low sample size) and then drops, does this count as a 'Yes'? Does LMSYS enforce a 'minimum vote threshold' before a model appears on the main leaderboard?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Tech|$1.5m Vol|

57 days 23 hrs

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.02 23:49

Top Undervalued

+0.5¢

xAI(Yes)

+0.5¢

DeepSeek(Yes)

+0.5¢

Z.ai(Yes)

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? AI analysis: • +0.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the expiration date approaches, market expectations for the next model release cycle have diverge...

🔓 Log in to see more

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

xAI

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

11¢

89¢

+0.5¢

0¢

DeepSeek

YesNo

2.5¢

97.5¢

3¢

97¢

+0.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

Apr 30, 2026 - May 01, 2026, Meituan's price surged from 2.25c to 23.55c, driven by rumors that Meituan had anonymously deployed a stunning new-generation large model on the Chatbot Arena, triggering heavy bets on its potential to hit #1 soon. Apr 27, 2026 - Apr 28, 2026, OpenAI's price crashed from 38.5c to 22.5c, due to strong performance from unlisted competitors (like Anthropic or Google) and circulating rumors that the release schedule for OpenAI's next-frontier model might be delayed again, prompting a massive downgrade in its top-spot expectations for June. Apr 08, 2026 - Apr 09, 2026, Meta's price spiked from 4.5c to 13.6c, due to escalating rumors about a massive Llama 3 variant or Llama 4 being deployed to the Arena, raising market expectations for its potential to hit #1, which subsequently cooled. Mar 19, 2026 - Mar 21, 2026, Baidu's price spiked from 3.25c to 13c, then crashed back to 4c within 24 hours, due to rumors surrounding Ernie 5.0 triggering market movement, followed by a sell-off when performance data disappointed. Mar 19, 2026 - Mar 20, 2026, xAI's price dropped from 25c to 11.5c, because the new Grok version debuting at only #4 in the Arena failed to meet championship expectations, triggering disappointment selling.