[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the current live standings from the Chatbot Arena (lmarena.ai) specifically under the "Style Control: Off" setting; analyze the Polymarket order book to assess if the market is pricing in current leaders or speculatively pricing in unreleased Q2 2026 models.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve the current live standings from the Chatbot Arena (lmarena.ai) specifically under the "Style Control: Off" setting; analyze the Polymarket order book to assess if the market is pricing in current leaders or speculatively pricing in unreleased Q2 2026 models.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Timeline Check] Search for the expected dates of Google I/O 2026 (typically May) and OpenAI's next DevDay; analyze whether a model released in May or June would have a sufficient time window to accumulate enough "Arena Scores" on the LMSYS leaderboard to claim the #1 spot by the June 30 cutoff.

AI-powered analysis for: [Timeline Check] Search for the expected dates of Google I/O 2026 (typically May) and OpenAI's next DevDay; analyze whether a model released in May or June would have a sufficient time window to accumulate enough "Arena Scores" on the LMSYS leaderboard to claim the #1 spot by the June 30 cutoff.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall/Risk Premium] Given the specific rule that awards the win to the alphabetically first company in the event of a tie (e.g., Alibaba > Google > OpenAI > xAI), assess whether companies at the end of the alphabet (like xAI or Z.ai) are trading at a discount that reflects this disadvantage, or if the market is ignoring this tail risk.

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall/Risk Premium] Given the specific rule that awards the win to the alphabetically first company in the event of a tie (e.g., Alibaba > Google > OpenAI > xAI), assess whether companies at the end of the alphabet (like xAI or Z.ai) are trading at a discount that reflects this disadvantage, or if the market is ignoring this tail risk.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Tech|$1.9m Vol|

103 days 7 hrs

Which company has best AI model end of June? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Anthropic

YesNo

53.65¢

46.35¢

62¢

38¢

+8.4¢

0¢

Google

YesNo

22¢

78¢

18¢

82¢

0¢

+4¢

DeepSeek

YesNo

2.05¢

97.95¢

5¢

95¢

+3¢

0¢

OpenAI

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+2.5¢

xAI

YesNo

5.25¢

94.75¢

3¢

97¢

0¢

+2.2¢

Moonshot

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

Z.ai

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

Alibaba

YesNo

0.7¢

99.3¢

1¢

99¢

+0.3¢

0¢

Meituan

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

Mistral

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

9 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

1. **Anthropic (FV 62)**: The market underestimates the 'Tyranny of Alphabet'. In the 2026 convergence phase, SOTA scores are likely to cluster. With the initial 'A', Anthropic wins all ties against Google ('G'), OpenAI ('O'), and DeepSeek ('D'). This structural advantage implies its true equity > technical win rate. 2. **Google (FV 18)**: Discounted by rules. Gemini must win clearly; a tie is a loss to Anthropic or DeepSeek due to alphabetical order. The 22c price correctly reflects this handicap. 3. **OpenAI (FV 10)**: Victim of rules. 'O' is terrible for tie-breakers. OpenAI loses almost any tie. Unless GPT-5 delivers a massive, unmatchable leap (unlikely in a mature curve), their win probability is minimal. 4. **DeepSeek (FV 5)**: Undervalued dark horse. 'D' beats Google and OpenAI in ties. If they match SOTA, they steal the win, making 2c a high-EV play.

Sign up to view more information

Hedging

MSFT

GOOGL

This event correlates directly with the stock prices of major tech giants. If Google (Gemini) or Microsoft (OpenAI) takes the top spot, it signals technical leadership, likely boosting their stock. Conversely, if a player like DeepSeek or xAI unexpectedly tops the leaderboard, it could be viewed as an erosion of the incumbents' moats, weighing on GOOGL/MSFT. DeepSeek's past performance has already demonstrated its ability to shock chip stocks (like NVDA) and tech giants. It is a moderately impactful tradable event.

Divergence

Extreme Divergence. **Mainstream consensus** still hails OpenAI as the default AI leader; however, **Prediction Markets** (Smart Money) have crushed its probability to a dismal 12.5% (below Google) due to the 'Tie-Breaker Disadvantage' and lack of shipping. This gap exists because the public ignores the specific resolution rules (Alphabetical Tie-Breaker).

Which company has best AI model end of June? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner