[Mandatory Task] Order Book & LMSYS Alignment: Visit lmarena.ai to retrieve the latest Arena ELO scores, identifying the current #1 (dominant) and the #2/#3 contenders. Analyze the Polymarket order book to determine if the market is pricing in the current 'Second Place' holding their spot, or expecting the current 'First Place' to be dethroned and fall into the second position?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & LMSYS Alignment: Visit lmarena.ai to retrieve the latest Arena ELO scores, identifying the current #1 (dominant) and the #2/#3 contenders. Analyze the Polymarket order book to determine if the market is pricing in the current 'Second Place' holding their spot, or expecting the current 'First Place' to be dethroned and fall into the second position?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Timeline Check] Q2 Model Release Wave: Search for scheduled events like Google I/O 2026, OpenAI Spring updates, or Anthropic roadmaps. Are there rumored flagship releases (e.g., GPT-5 or Gemini 2 Ultra) before the June 30th resolution that could cause a 'displacement effect' at the top of the leaderboard (i.e., a new #1 pushes the old #1 to #2)?

AI-powered analysis for: [Timeline Check] Q2 Model Release Wave: Search for scheduled events like Google I/O 2026, OpenAI Spring updates, or Anthropic roadmaps. Are there rumored flagship releases (e.g., GPT-5 or Gemini 2 Ultra) before the June 30th resolution that could cause a 'displacement effect' at the top of the leaderboard (i.e., a new #1 pushes the old #1 to #2)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall] Alphabetical Tie-Breaker Risk Assessment: The rules state that in a tie for 2nd place, the company first in alphabetical order wins (e.g., Google beats xAI). Does the current pricing ignore this edge case? Is there an arbitrage opportunity based on 'Alphabetical Advantage' for contenders with close ELO scores (e.g., Anthropic vs. OpenAI)?

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall] Alphabetical Tie-Breaker Risk Assessment: The rules state that in a tie for 2nd place, the company first in alphabetical order wins (e.g., Google beats xAI). Does the current pricing ignore this edge case? Is there an arbitrage opportunity based on 'Alphabetical Advantage' for contenders with close ELO scores (e.g., Anthropic vs. OpenAI)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Tech|$373.7k Vol|

58 days 2 hrs

Which company has second best AI model end of June? - AI Found +14¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.26 00:58

Top Undervalued

+14¢

OpenAI(Yes)

+12.5¢

Google(No)

+3¢

Anthropic(No)

Which company has second best AI model end of June? AI analysis: • +14¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on current market pricing and recent trends, Anthropic remains the most likely company to secu...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

OpenAI

YesNo

9.05¢

90.95¢

23¢

77¢

+14¢

0¢

Google

YesNo

24.5¢

75.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+12.5¢

Expand to view all 15 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

While the rule explicitly specifies LM Arena as the source, there are two significant risk points: 1. The definition of 'second best' can be complicated by ties; although the rule mentions alphabetical resolution, this adds complexity. 2. Model attribution issues, for example, if models from xAI or DeepSeek are renamed or merged, could spark disputes. Additionally, the 'Second Best' spot is highly volatile, making the exact moment of settlement crucial.

Hedging

GOOGL

Since insiders (researchers, engineers at AI labs) may know the performance benchmarks (SOTA levels) of upcoming models in advance, there is significant information asymmetry. This event correlates directly with the stock prices of AI giants. If a model from Google or OpenAI unexpectedly underperforms or excels, it directly impacts market confidence in their AI competitiveness, affecting GOOGL or MSFT prices. Hedging is significant.

Movers

2026-04-22 to 2026-04-25, Google's price dropped from 24.5c to 12c, as market confidence in its next-generation models surpassing Anthropic or OpenAI by the end of June significantly weakened. 2026-04-19 to 2026-04-25, OpenAI's price steadily climbed from 9.15c to 22.35c, reflecting market sentiment that amid intensified competition, some of OpenAI's flagship models might settle in the second position. 2026-04-16 to 2026-04-18, Anthropic's price surged from 45.5c to 57c, as market confidence significantly increased regarding its ability to maintain or capture the second spot on the LMSYS leaderboard. 2026-03-29 to 2026-04-04, OpenAI's price steadily declined from 18c to 7.5c, reflecting market expectations that its next-generation model had firmly secured the #1 spot on the leaderboard, thereby reducing the probability of it resolving as #2. 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-28, Google's price fell from 33.5c to 21c, likely because the market lost confidence in Google's ability to release a product that surpasses new models from OpenAI and Anthropic in the short term. 2026-03-25 to 2026-03-28, Anthropic's price rose from 35c to 42.5c, due to the strong performance of its recent models, leading the market to expect a high probability of it securing a top-two spot.