[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the real-time odds, order book depth, and user discussions for top contenders like OpenAI and Google in March 2026, and update the fair value and risk assessment for who will be #1 by the end of June.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the real-time odds, order book depth, and user discussions for top contenders like OpenAI and Google in March 2026, and update the fair value and risk assessment for who will be #1 by the end of June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the 'Alphabetical Order Tie-Breaker' rule in simple terms: If Google and OpenAI are tied in Arena Score on June 30, which company wins based on the company name sorting rule?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the 'Alphabetical Order Tie-Breaker' rule in simple terms: If Google and OpenAI are tied in Arena Score on June 30, which company wins based on the company name sorting rule?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search for the latest schedules for Google I/O (usually in May) or OpenAI's Spring Update to verify if there are major model releases (e.g., GPT-5 or Gemini 3) planned before the June 30 resolution.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Search for the latest schedules for Google I/O (usually in May) or OpenAI's Spring Update to verify if there are major model releases (e.g., GPT-5 or Gemini 3) planned before the June 30 resolution.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall] Data Source Reliability Check: Verify the update status of the LMSYS Arena in 2026: Is the 'Style Control On' leaderboard still the mainstream standard, and is there a risk of it being deprecated or altered before June?

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall] Data Source Reliability Check: Verify the update status of the LMSYS Arena in 2026: Is the 'Style Control On' leaderboard still the mainstream standard, and is there a risk of it being deprecated or altered before June?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Key Players Mining: Investigate the compute cluster status for xAI (Elon Musk) or DeepSeek in 2026 to determine if they realistically have the capacity to train a model that surpasses the current SOTA before June.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Key Players Mining: Investigate the compute cluster status for xAI (Elon Musk) or DeepSeek in 2026 to determine if they realistically have the capacity to train a model that surpasses the current SOTA before June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Review LMSYS Leaderboard data from the past year (2025-2026) to calculate the average duration a model holds the #1 spot, inferring the probability of the current leader maintaining its edge until June.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Review LMSYS Leaderboard data from the past year (2025-2026) to calculate the average duration a model holds the #1 spot, inferring the probability of the current leader maintaining its edge until June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Search for bearish arguments against the current leaderboard frontrunner (e.g., OpenAI or Google), listing the Top 3 reasons (e.g., safety delays, shifting user preference) why it might lose the #1 spot by June.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Search for bearish arguments against the current leaderboard frontrunner (e.g., OpenAI or Google), listing the Top 3 reasons (e.g., safety delays, shifting user preference) why it might lose the #1 spot by June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Legal/Reality Barriers: Search for any AI regulations or antitrust actions taking effect in Q2 2026 that could force delays in model releases or takedowns, impacting the rankings at the end of June.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Legal/Reality Barriers: Search for any AI regulations or antitrust actions taking effect in Q2 2026 that could force delays in model releases or takedowns, impacting the rankings at the end of June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on industry rumors, list potential catalysts (e.g., Llama 4 open-source, new Claude release) that could cause drastic leaderboard volatility within the remaining 4 months (March-June).

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on industry rumors, list potential catalysts (e.g., Llama 4 open-source, new Claude release) that could cause drastic leaderboard volatility within the remaining 4 months (March-June).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Crypto] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Analyze recent sentiments from AI researchers on Twitter/X regarding the 'Style Control' ranking: Is it considered biased (e.g., favoring verbose models), and how does this affect prediction logic?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Crypto] KOL Sentiment Analysis: Analyze recent sentiments from AI researchers on Twitter/X regarding the 'Style Control' ranking: Is it considered biased (e.g., favoring verbose models), and how does this affect prediction logic?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Evaluate whether betting on the favorite (e.g., OpenAI) is currently 'picking up pennies' (low return), versus whether volatile options like DeepSeek offer a better risk-reward ratio ('lottery ticket').

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Evaluate whether betting on the favorite (e.g., OpenAI) is currently 'picking up pennies' (low return), versus whether volatile options like DeepSeek offer a better risk-reward ratio ('lottery ticket').. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Community Disagreement Summary: Search Polymarket/Discord discussions to summarize disputes regarding 'Company Name' attribution (e.g., if Alibaba Cloud's Qwen tops the chart, is it clearly resolved as 'Alibaba').

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Community Disagreement Summary: Search Polymarket/Discord discussions to summarize disputes regarding 'Company Name' attribution (e.g., if Alibaba Cloud's Qwen tops the chart, is it clearly resolved as 'Alibaba').. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the current leaderboard stagnation in 2026 to previous cycles (e.g., pre-GPT-4) to analyze if the current deadlock suggests a massive 'score jump' is imminent before June.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the current leaderboard stagnation in 2026 to previous cycles (e.g., pre-GPT-4) to analyze if the current deadlock suggests a massive 'score jump' is imminent before June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: With only 4 months left until June 30, analyze which side benefits more from time decay: Does the lack of news favor the current status quo holders?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: With only 4 months left until June 30, analyze which side benefits more from time decay: Does the lack of news favor the current status quo holders?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Assuming a $1000 investment locked for 4 months until June, calculate the minimum excess return required compared to risk-free DeFi yields to make this bet worthwhile.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Assuming a $1000 investment locked for 4 months until June, calculate the minimum excess return required compared to risk-free DeFi yields to make this bet worthwhile.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall] Risk Premium Assessment: Based on alphabetical order (Anthropic < Google < Mistral < OpenAI < xAI), calculate the theoretical price premium that companies earlier in the alphabet should command due to the tie-breaker rule.

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall] Risk Premium Assessment: Based on alphabetical order (Anthropic < Google < Mistral < OpenAI < xAI), calculate the theoretical price premium that companies earlier in the alphabet should command due to the tie-breaker rule.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Establish a fundamental stop-loss criterion, such as 'if a competitor exceeds the held company's Elo score by >20 points before May 1st', dictating an immediate exit.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Establish a fundamental stop-loss criterion, such as 'if a competitor exceeds the held company's Elo score by >20 points before May 1st', dictating an immediate exit.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Given the 'black box' and volatile nature of AI R&D, what portfolio percentage does the Kelly criterion suggest for this specific bet?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Given the 'black box' and volatile nature of AI R&D, what portfolio percentage does the Kelly criterion suggest for this specific bet?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Micro-Capital] $10 Lottery Ticket Play: For small-capital users, recommend a high-payout (>50x) underdog company (e.g., Moonshot or Z.ai) that has the potential to release disruptive tech before June.

AI-powered analysis for: [Micro-Capital] $10 Lottery Ticket Play: For small-capital users, recommend a high-payout (>50x) underdog company (e.g., Moonshot or Z.ai) that has the potential to release disruptive tech before June.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 Twitter accounts or bots that provide the fastest alerts on LMSYS leaderboard changes to execute front-running trades before the June resolution.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation: Recommend 3 Twitter accounts or bots that provide the fastest alerts on LMSYS leaderboard changes to execute front-running trades before the June resolution.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Tech|$1.4m Vol|

58 days 2 hrs

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On) - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 6 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+2¢

Anthropic(No)

+0.8¢

Alibaba(No)

+0.7¢

ByteDance(No)

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On) AI analysis: • +2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 60 days to the June 30 settlement, Anthropic's lead is increasingly secure, its marke...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Anthropic

YesNo

70¢

30¢

68¢

32¢

0¢

+2¢

Alibaba

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

Expand to view all 15 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

GOOGL

This event directly correlates with the technical reputation of major AI firms. If DeepSeek or another Chinese firm (Moonshot/Alibaba) tops the leaderboard, it could spark concerns about US AI dominance, potentially pressuring GOOGL/MSFT stocks. A Google win would alleviate fears of them falling behind. Since OpenAI isn't public (MSFT is a proxy) and insider info (model performance) is critical, this offers significant hedging value.

Movers

Apr 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, Anthropic's price surged from 48.5c to 70c, while Google's price dropped from 26.5c to 16.5c. This is because, as time passes without credible leaks of revolutionary models from competitors, market confidence in Anthropic holding the top spot until the end of June has significantly increased. Apr 28, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, Anthropic's price surged from 34.5c to 49.5c, driven by the sustained strong performance of its Claude models on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, which significantly boosted market confidence in its ability to defend the top spot until the end of June. Apr 17, 2026 - Apr 19, 2026, Google's price surged from 17c to 28c, while Anthropic's dropped from 57c to 47.5c. This was driven by mounting anticipation of a dominant new model release at the upcoming Google I/O, which squeezed the odds of the current leader, Anthropic. Apr 17, 2026 - Apr 18, 2026, OpenAI's price spiked from 5c to 15.5c due to circulating rumors that OpenAI might release its next-generation flagship model sooner than expected to preempt competitors, temporarily reviving market confidence. Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 17, 2026, OpenAI's price gradually declined from 12c to 5c, as the market's expectation of a new flagship model (like GPT-5) being released and dominating the leaderboard before the June 30 deadline continues to cool down. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, Google's price rebounded from 16c to 22.5c. This was a market correction following the panic sell-off after Claude's ascent, as investors realized Gemini 3.1 Pro is still a top-3 contender and the 3-month window is sufficient for a fine-tuned update to retake the lead. Mar 19, 2026 - Mar 20, 2026, Anthropic's price surged from 43.5c to 57c due to the Chatbot Arena leaderboard update, which showed Claude Opus 4.6 taking the #1 spot, cementing its lead and tiebreaker advantage.