Tech|$318.4k Vol|
12 days 6 hrsWhich company will have the best AI model for math on March 31? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
OpenAI
YesNo
Google
YesNo
Anthropic
YesNo
DeepSeek
YesNo
xAI
YesNo
Alibaba
YesNo
Moonshot
YesNo
Z.ai
YesNo
Mistral
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 20:15 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
OpenAI's current price of 90.5 cents remains significantly overvalued. While OpenAI is a leader in math models, the market is ignoring two critical risks: 1. **Alphabetical Tiebreaker**: This is a massive structural disadvantage. 'O' ranks behind Alibaba, Anthropic, DeepSeek, and Google. Ties are common in benchmarks like LiveBench. If a tie occurs, OpenAI loses immediately. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: DeepSeek R1/V3 and Claude 3.5/3.7 are extremely competitive in math reasoning, and Google's Gemini updates are frequent. Pricing OpenAI at 90% implies near certainty of a **dominant, non-tied victory** within the next 15 days, assuming competitors remain stagnant. Given the volatility of AI releases, a fair value of ~65% (discounting for tiebreaker and competition risks) is more rational.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. **Market Pricing** implies a 90% win probability for OpenAI, typically seen in monopolistic scenarios. However, **Technical Consensus** and benchmarks (LiveBench, MATH, GSM8k) show that DeepSeek (R1 series), Anthropic (Claude 3.5/3.7 Sonnet), and Google (Gemini 1.5 Pro) are neck-and-neck with GPT-4o in math capabilities. The market pricing appears to be driven by speculative anticipation of a major OpenAI release (e.g., GPT-4.5/5 or full o3) rather than the current performance gap, while also almost entirely ignoring the 'Alphabetical Tiebreaker' rule that could cause an upset loss.
