Trump|$1.1m Vol|
12 days 6 hrsWhich countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
India
YesNo
Russia
YesNo
Italy
YesNo
Belgium
YesNo
Brazil
YesNo
Netherlands
YesNo
Switzerland
YesNo
Germany
YesNo
U.K.
YesNo
France
YesNo
Palestine
YesNo
Sweden
YesNo
Ukraine
YesNo
Denmark
YesNo
Norway
YesNo
Spain
YesNo
Finland
YesNo
China
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 21:08 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The core judgment is based on the fact that the specific resolution deadline defined in the rules (February 28, 2026) has already passed, and the current date is March 17, 2026. There are no credible reports that any of the listed countries made a definitive announcement to join the 'Board of Peace' prior to that deadline. Although the market settlement date is March 31, the resolution trigger is strictly bound to events occurring before Feb 28. Therefore, according to the text of the rules, the outcome for all options is already deterministically NO, making any current positive price for YES a mispricing.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' (e.g., for India or Russia)
Plan Description:
This is a near risk-free arbitrage on an expired event. The rules explicitly require joining by Feb 28, and it is now mid-March with no such event having occurred. Buying 'India No' costs ~96.75 cents and will settle at 100 cents on March 31, yielding a 3.25 cent profit. A 3.3% absolute return in two weeks represents a very high annualized yield. The only risk is a highly unlikely misinterpretation of the rules by the platform.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 3¢
|Annualized yield: 85%
Rule Risk
There is a significant date discrepancy: the title states 'by March 31', but the rule text explicitly sets the deadline as 'February 28, 2026', which creates confusion for traders. Additionally, diplomatic language is notoriously vague (distinguishing 'agreement in principle' from 'formal joining'), making the interpretation of 'definitive announcement' subjective and prone to disputes.
Divergence
There is a significant 'Zombie Market' divergence. Although the deadline (Feb 28) has passed without a triggering event, implying a theoretical price of 0, there is still residual trading on YES (e.g., India at 3.25c). This reflects that some traders may be misreading the rules (confusing the March 31 settlement date with the Feb 28 resolution deadline) or are gambling on a negligible chance of rule modification.
