All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
UAE
YesNo
Saudi Arabia
YesNo
Qatar
YesNo
Bahrain
YesNo
Kuwait
YesNo
Any E.U. Country
YesNo
Jordan
YesNo
Oman
YesNo
France
YesNo
UK
YesNo
Turkey
YesNo
Canada
YesNo
Germany
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 22:09 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While tensions in the Middle East are high, 'Yes' prices across the market generally retain a panic premium. 1. **Extremely Short Timeframe**: With only about 13 days left until March 31, the diplomatic and military lead-times make it highly unlikely for the listed nations (non-US/Israel) to initiate a direct airstrike on Iranian soil or embassies (as defined by the rules) within this window. 2. **Gulf Defensive Posture**: Although Saudi Arabia (9c) and UAE (8.5c) face threats, their core strategy is de-escalation and defense via US partnerships, not offensive strikes on Iranian soil. Current prices implying a ~10% chance are inconsistent with geopolitical reality (actual probability likely <5%). 3. **European Restraint**: Despite the correction in 'Any E.U. Country', given explicit defensive statements from Macron and Starmer, the likelihood of France or the UK initiating offensive strikes on Iran within two weeks is negligible. 4. **Arbitrage Logic**: 'Any E.U. Country' (3.95c) is now priced identically to France (3.95c), ignoring the minute probability of other nations, but the entire block remains overvalued relative to the strict 'offensive strike' definition.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
Crude Oil
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
A direct military strike on Iran by any listed country (especially the UK, France, Saudi Arabia, or Turkey) would be viewed as a major act of war. Crude Oil prices would spike instantly (Score 5) due to fears of a Strait of Hormuz blockade. Risk aversion would surge, driving up Gold and causing a sharp sell-off in risk assets like the S&P 500. This is a high-value 'tail risk' hedging event.
Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Saudi Arabia dropped from 14.5c to 9c, UAE from 16.5c to 8.5c, and Qatar from 11.8c to 6.65c. The reason is the approaching month-end without major escalation, causing the market's fear of Gulf states initiating conflict to cool rapidly, returning to rational defensive expectations.
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, France's price dropped from 9.65c to 2.75c, as market panic subsided following President Macron's statement explicitly ruling out retaliatory offensive actions despite the death of a French soldier.
March 14, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Bahrain's price dropped from 13c to 7c, as the market confirmed that Gulf states are engaging only in defensive interceptions and are not joining the US-Israeli offensive campaign.
Divergence
While prices have corrected significantly, divergence remains. Mainstream geopolitical analysis (e.g., Stratfor, ISW) widely assesses that Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar are actively avoiding direct war with Iran to protect infrastructure and economic transition plans. However, prediction market prices (Saudi 9c, UAE 8.5c) still imply a probability near 10%, which is significantly higher than the 'near zero' likelihood suggested by experts. The market may be pricing in tail risks of 'miscalculation' or 'uncontrolled escalation,' whereas experts focus on strategic intent.
