[Mandatory Task] Retrieve and analyze the latest order book data for the 'UpOnly Podcast Guest' market. Given the low total volume of ~$4,900, evaluate the bid-ask spreads and liquidity depth for popular options (e.g., Ansem, GCR) versus highly improbable ones (e.g., SBF). Are there mispricing or arbitrage opportunities caused by illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve and analyze the latest order book data for the 'UpOnly Podcast Guest' market. Given the low total volume of ~$4,900, evaluate the bid-ask spreads and liquidity depth for popular options (e.g., Ansem, GCR) versus highly improbable ones (e.g., SBF). Are there mispricing or arbitrage opportunities caused by illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Search the recent X (Twitter) activity and replies of hosts @Cobie and @Ledger for any hints regarding an 'UpOnly revival' or 'new season,' or interactions with listed guests (e.g., Brian Armstrong, Vitalik). Summarize whether the current narrative points to a surprise comeback or an indefinite hiatus.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Search the recent X (Twitter) activity and replies of hosts @Cobie and @Ledger for any hints regarding an 'UpOnly revival' or 'new season,' or interactions with listed guests (e.g., Brian Armstrong, Vitalik). Summarize whether the current narrative points to a surprise comeback or an indefinite hiatus.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Calculate the 'Opportunity Cost of Capital' for betting 'No' on guests with special circumstances like SBF (currently incarcerated) or Martin Shkreli. If holding this position until the late 2026 resolution date, does the implied annualized return outperform the risk-free rate of DeFi stablecoin yields or Treasury bills (approx. 4-5%) over the same period?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Calculate the 'Opportunity Cost of Capital' for betting 'No' on guests with special circumstances like SBF (currently incarcerated) or Martin Shkreli. If holding this position until the late 2026 resolution date, does the implied annualized return outperform the risk-free rate of DeFi stablecoin yields or Treasury bills (approx. 4-5%) over the same period?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?

Crypto|$27.7k Vol|

243 days 5 hrs

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027? - AI Found +54¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 18:02

Top Undervalued

+54¢

Jesse Pollak(Yes)

+50¢

Brian Armstrong(Yes)

+43.5¢

Javier Milei(No)

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027? AI analysis: • +54¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The valuation logic remains anchored on Coinbase's relaunch of UpOnly. Brian Armstrong (26.5c) and J...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Jesse Pollak

YesNo

26¢

74¢

80¢

20¢

+54¢

0¢

Brian Armstrong

YesNo

35¢

65¢

85¢

15¢

+50¢

0¢

Expand to view all 21 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

UpOnly is a niche podcast specific to crypto culture. While famous within the industry, it is obscure to the general public. Predicting podcast guests falls under 'niche cultural prediction', sitting between standard election/financial markets and completely absurd novelty bets.

Movers

Apr 26, 2026 - Apr 29, 2026: CZ's price surged from 36.35c to 49.9c, likely due to rumors of a major guest appearance. Apr 26, 2026 - Apr 27, 2026: Vitalik Buterin's price spiked from 10.6c to 44.4c and stabilized near 49c, potentially driven by social media interactions implying an appearance. Apr 26, 2026 - Apr 27, 2026: ThreadGuy's price jumped from 34.5c to 50c, influenced by rising community expectations for native Crypto Twitter KOLs. Apr 13, 2026 - Apr 14, 2026: Gainzy's price surged from 44c to 59c, driven by community expectations that native Crypto Twitter personalities will be early guests. Apr 12, 2026 - Apr 14, 2026: Anatoly Yakovenko's price surged from 44c to 57c, and Andrew Kang's price rose from 32c to 44.5c, as market anticipation grew for cross-chain ecosystem leaders joining the podcast. Apr 08, 2026 - Apr 09, 2026: Jesse Pollak's price surged from 26c to 38.5c, as the market began correcting the fundamentals of his necessity as Base Lead to appear on the show. Mar 27, 2026 - Mar 30, 2026: ThreadGuy's price surged from 26.5c to 46c, Gainzy's from 34c to 49.5c, and Jeff Yan's from 32c to 47.5c. This was driven by market expectations that the initial guest lineup will heavily favor highly active Crypto Twitter personalities and top ecosystem founders, sparking capital rotation into native crypto KOLs. Mar 09, 2026 - Mar 10, 2026: Jesse Pollak's price recovered from 38c to 46c, likely reflecting a market correction reaffirming the fundamental logic that the Base Lead must appear to support Coinbase's marketing strategy. Feb 23, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026: Guy Young's price surged from 20.5c to 50c, likely a mean-reversion recovery following a flash crash in the prior session. Feb 22, 2026 - Feb 24, 2026: Brian Armstrong's price spiked from 44c to 63c before correcting to 52.5c, reflecting high volatility likely driven by rumors regarding the debut episode's recording schedule.

Divergence

The market significantly underestimates the probability of Brian Armstrong and Jesse Pollak appearing on UpOnly, while overestimating SBF's chances. As a Coinbase-affiliated/owned property, the appearance of its internal executives is highly certain. Conversely, SBF is currently in federal prison, making his participation in a public commercial podcast practically impossible.