[Mandatory Task] Retrieve and analyze the latest order book data for the 'UpOnly Podcast Guest' market. Given the low total volume of ~$4,900, evaluate the bid-ask spreads and liquidity depth for popular options (e.g., Ansem, GCR) versus highly improbable ones (e.g., SBF). Are there mispricing or arbitrage opportunities caused by illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Retrieve and analyze the latest order book data for the 'UpOnly Podcast Guest' market. Given the low total volume of ~$4,900, evaluate the bid-ask spreads and liquidity depth for popular options (e.g., Ansem, GCR) versus highly improbable ones (e.g., SBF). Are there mispricing or arbitrage opportunities caused by illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Search the recent X (Twitter) activity and replies of hosts @Cobie and @Ledger for any hints regarding an 'UpOnly revival' or 'new season,' or interactions with listed guests (e.g., Brian Armstrong, Vitalik). Summarize whether the current narrative points to a surprise comeback or an indefinite hiatus.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Search the recent X (Twitter) activity and replies of hosts @Cobie and @Ledger for any hints regarding an 'UpOnly revival' or 'new season,' or interactions with listed guests (e.g., Brian Armstrong, Vitalik). Summarize whether the current narrative points to a surprise comeback or an indefinite hiatus.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Calculate the 'Opportunity Cost of Capital' for betting 'No' on guests with special circumstances like SBF (currently incarcerated) or Martin Shkreli. If holding this position until the late 2026 resolution date, does the implied annualized return outperform the risk-free rate of DeFi stablecoin yields or Treasury bills (approx. 4-5%) over the same period?

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Calculate the 'Opportunity Cost of Capital' for betting 'No' on guests with special circumstances like SBF (currently incarcerated) or Martin Shkreli. If holding this position until the late 2026 resolution date, does the implied annualized return outperform the risk-free rate of DeFi stablecoin yields or Treasury bills (approx. 4-5%) over the same period?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Crypto|$441 Vol|

288 days 9 hrs

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Jesse Pollak

YesNo

37¢

63¢

80¢

20¢

+43¢

0¢

Brian Armstrong

YesNo

46¢

54¢

85¢

15¢

+39¢

0¢

Martin Shkreli

YesNo

14.5¢

85.5¢

40¢

60¢

+25.5¢

0¢

Arthur Hayes

YesNo

21.5¢

78.5¢

45¢

55¢

+23.5¢

0¢

Jeff Yan

YesNo

54¢

46¢

75¢

25¢

+21¢

0¢

SBF

YesNo

23.95¢

76.05¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+19¢

Guy Young

YesNo

40.5¢

59.5¢

55¢

45¢

+14.5¢

0¢

YesNo

11.15¢

88.85¢

25¢

75¢

+13.9¢

0¢

thiccy

YesNo

49¢

51¢

60¢

40¢

+11¢

0¢

Gainzy

YesNo

50¢

60¢

40¢

+10¢

0¢

Su Zhu

YesNo

26.5¢

73.5¢

35¢

65¢

+8.5¢

0¢

Anatoly Yakovenko

YesNo

49¢

51¢

45¢

55¢

0¢

+4¢

Ansem

YesNo

41.5¢

58.5¢

45¢

55¢

+3.5¢

0¢

GCR

YesNo

11¢

89¢

0¢

Vitalik Buterin

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

0¢

light

YesNo

50¢

0¢

Michael Saylor

YesNo

46.5¢

53.5¢

0¢

Javier Milei

YesNo

25¢

75¢

0¢

Andrew Kang

YesNo

46.5¢

53.5¢

0¢

Thomas Lee

YesNo

48.5¢

51.5¢

0¢

ThreadGuy

YesNo

37.5¢

62.5¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.15 21:29 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The valuation logic anchors on the commercial reality of Coinbase's $25M acquisition of UpOnly. This is a strategic marketing vehicle for the Base ecosystem, not just a podcast. Consequently, appearances by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Base Lead Jesse Pollak are commercially necessary to justify the ROI, placing their fair value (80c+) significantly above current trading prices (~48c). Jeff Yan (Hyperliquid) represents the defining 'DEX' narrative of this cycle, making him a prime candidate for the show's format. Conversely, SBF is serving a 25-year sentence; physical constraints and the PR risk for Coinbase (a public company) hosting a fraudster make his 29c price (30% implied probability) irrational. Martin Shkreli, now released and active in Web3, is undervalued at 15.5c given his history with the hosts.

Exotics

UpOnly is a niche podcast specific to crypto culture. While famous within the industry, it is obscure to the general public. Predicting podcast guests falls under 'niche cultural prediction', sitting between standard election/financial markets and completely absurd novelty bets.

Divergence

The primary divergence is between SBF's price and legal reality. Mainstream media and legal records confirm SBF is serving a 25-year sentence with strict monitoring, yet the market assigns a ~30% probability to his appearance, disconnected from physical constraints. Additionally, Martin Shkreli (15.5c), a released and active 'friend of the show,' is priced significantly lower than figures like ThreadGuy (28c), suggesting the market is overlooking his ability to generate viral content.

Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027? - AI Odds Analysis

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