All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Nuke
YesNo
Ancient
YesNo
Inferno
YesNo
Overpass
YesNo
Mirage
YesNo
Dust 2
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 22:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The current date is March 12, 2026, leaving only about 3.5 months until the June 30 settlement. Based on CS2's historical update patterns, Active Duty map pool rotations typically have intervals of at least 6 months. Given that a rotation just occurred in January 2026 (Train in, Anubis out), the probability of another rotation happening before the end of June is extremely low. Furthermore, CS2 Major tournament cycles usually lock the map pool unless there are critical balance issues. The current price spike of Nuke to 41c appears anomalous and lacks substantive news backing, likely indicating market manipulation or mispricing. All 'Yes' prices (e.g., Nuke at 41c, Ancient at 22c) are significantly higher than the actual probability of occurrence (<10%). Therefore, the fair value for all options should remain at very low levels (around 5c), suggesting selling 'Yes' or holding 'No'.
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Exotics
This is a niche prediction focused on the update strategy of a specific esport (CS2). While a regular topic for CS players and esports enthusiasts, it is exotic to the general public, relying on specific knowledge of Valve's update cadence and map pool rotation history.
Movers
March 11, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Nuke's 'Yes' price surged from 20.5c to 41c, an increase of over 20c. This volatility is highly anomalous and lacks support from official Valve news or credible reporting. It is likely driven by speculative behavior from a single whale or market manipulation, especially given the recent map pool rotation; this price is severely detached from fundamentals.
March 10, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Dust 2's 'Yes' price plummeted from 30c to 13.5c, Overpass dropped from 26.5c to 12c, and Inferno fell slightly from 14.5c to 13.5c. This indicates a collective market correction following the irrational hype in early March, as traders realize no map removals are imminent.
March 6, 2026 - March 10, 2026, Overpass's 'Yes' price plummeted from ~50.5c to 26.5c, indicating a collapse in confidence regarding its removal, with prices beginning to revert to low probabilities.
March 5, 2026 - March 11, 2026, Inferno's 'Yes' price crashed from ~44c to 13.5c, a drop of over 30c. This crash corrected a previously irrational premium, as the market finally realized Valve is unlikely to alter the map pool again in the short term.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The 'Yes' price for Nuke is trading at a 41% implied probability, which starkly contradicts CS2 community consensus and historical data. The mainstream view is that Valve is highly unlikely to remove a core map like Nuke before June, given the recent rotation in January 2026 and the ongoing tournament cycle. The market pricing reflects irrational panic or manipulation rather than a prediction based on genuine information.
