All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Avengers: Doomsday
YesNo
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
YesNo
Michael
YesNo
The Odyssey
YesNo
Toy Story 5
YesNo
Dune: Messiah
YesNo
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
YesNo
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
YesNo
Project Hail Mary
YesNo
Scream 7
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 16:09 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
'Avengers: Doomsday' remains the overwhelming favorite to win the 2026 opening weekend crown, driven by RDJ's return and the Russo brothers, with a floor likely above $200M. However, the existence of strong unlisted contenders (like 'Super Mario Bros. 2' or 'Shrek 5') creates a 'Field' risk, meaning there is a chance none of the listed options win. 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' is still undervalued at 12 cents; considering 'No Way Home' opened to $260M, it is the only listed IP with the ceiling to rival the Avengers. Regarding 'Michael', the market is correcting after an irrational pump; the genre ceiling for biopics makes a $200M opening virtually impossible, justifying a return to a fair value of 1 cent. Overall, we assign Avengers a 68% probability and see upside for Spider-Man.
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Hedging
DIS
This event serves as a fundamental catalyst for media stocks. Disney (DIS) holds the most contenders (Avengers, Toy Story, Star Wars), and its stock is highly sensitive to studio performance, particularly the recovery of the Marvel franchise. A record-breaking opening for 'Avengers: Doomsday' would act as a bullish driver for DIS, while a flop would be bearish. Warner Bros. (WBD) and Sony (SONY) are similarly exposed via their respective intellectual properties.
Movers
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, 'Michael' price crashed from 14.55¢ to 3.35¢ as the market corrected from a speculative bubble. While promotional events like Cinemacon may have generated short-term hype, investors realized that biopics—even for Michael Jackson—structurally lack the opening weekend explosiveness to compete with MCU or Star Wars tentpoles.
Mar 10, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, 'Michael' price surged from 3.15¢ to 16.15¢, a move likely driven by retail FOMO triggered by social media hype or leaked footage, causing the price to severely detach from box office fundamentals.
