All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Alec Pierce
YesNo
AJ Brown
YesNo
Trey Hendrickson
YesNo
Alvin Kamara
YesNo
Kyler Murray
YesNo
Brian Thomas Jr.
YesNo
Mike Evans
YesNo
Jalen Carter
YesNo
Trent Williams
YesNo
George Pickens
YesNo
Breece Hall
YesNo
Travis Etienne
YesNo
D.K. Metcalf
YesNo
De'Von Achane
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 06:18 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 14, 2026, the NFL free agency window is open. Breece Hall's price crash on March 11 (from ~50c to ~5c) strongly suggests the 'Tag-and-Trade' hypothesis has failed; he likely signed an extension or hit open free agency (which is not a trade), so his fair value is minimal. Conversely, Alec Pierce's surge in the last 24 hours validates previous reports regarding the Colts' cap constraints; with Pittman likely secured, the probability of Pierce being traded is materializing. For pending free agents like Mike Evans and Travis Etienne, the standard trade window has effectively closed unless a rare Sign-and-Trade occurs, warranting a valuation near zero.
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Movers
March 13-14, 2026: Alec Pierce surged from 5.55c to 43.75c as the new league year began and specific reports emerged regarding the Colts seeking to trade him due to cap casualties.
March 13-14, 2026: Trey Hendrickson rebounded from 5.5c to 23.65c, as the market corrected an overreaction and re-evaluated trade interest amidst the Bengals' defensive restructuring.
March 10-11, 2026: Breece Hall crashed from 47.5c to 5.5c as the franchise tag deadline passed without the Jets tagging him for a trade, implying he either extended or hit free agency directly, eliminating the trade thesis.
