Politics|$204 Vol|
5 days 6 hrsWhich parties will be part of the next Government of Denmark? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Danish People’s Party
YesNo
Social Democrats
YesNo
Liberal Alliance
YesNo
Conservative People’s Party
YesNo
Venstre
YesNo
Moderates
YesNo
Denmark Democrats
YesNo
Green Left
YesNo
Union Party
YesNo
Citizens’ Party
YesNo
The Alternative
YesNo
Red–Green Alliance
YesNo
Inuit Ataqatigiit
YesNo
Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
YesNo
Naleraq
YesNo
Danish Social Liberal Party
YesNo
AI Insights:
13 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With only 5 days until the election, polls (Voxmeter/Epinion) consistently show the Red Bloc extending its lead to 49-51%, nearing a direct majority (90 seats). PM Mette Frederiksen (Social Democrats) has secured a 'rally-around-the-flag' effect following her firm stance on Greenland against Trump. In contrast, the Blue Bloc trails, with Venstre collapsing to ~9% and the Liberal Alliance capped by Vanopslagh's cocaine scandal. The market exhibits severe mispricing: 1. Venstre (60c) and Moderates (68.5c) are vastly overvalued. Given the Red Bloc's potential majority or simple path with the Social Liberals, the incentive to maintain the unpopular SVM coalition is low, and Venstre may prefer opposition to rebuild. 2. Citizens' Party (37c) is absurdly overpriced; polling at the 2% threshold as an anti-establishment populist group, it has zero chance of cabinet entry. 3. Social Democrats (58.5c) are undervalued; Frederiksen's continuation as PM is the most likely outcome across all viable scenarios.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: Venstre surged irrationally from 30.5c to 60c. This contradicts fundamentals, as concurrent polls show Venstre collapsing to a historic low of 8.9% and the Red Bloc extending its lead. This move likely stems from market manipulation or a large bettor miscalculating the odds of the SVM coalition's survival.
March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026: Citizens' Party pumped from 12c to 37c. Given it is a fringe party polling at 2%, this move lacks any political logic and represents typical thin-market speculation or retail irrationality.
March 13, 2026 - March 17, 2026: Social Democrats dropped from 89c to 58.5c. Despite positive polling for the Red Bloc, the price fell, likely reflecting market uncertainty about the dissolution of the SVM coalition, yet it severely undervalues the Social Democrats' inevitability as the anchor of any government.
Divergence
There is a massive divergence between market pricing and mainstream polling. 1. Bloc Strength: Polls show the Red Bloc nearing a majority (~50%) with the Blue Bloc trailing at ~43%. However, the prediction market prices implies a massive overvaluation of Blue/Right-wing options (Venstre 60, Liberal Alliance 46, DF 43, Citizens 37), far exceeding their realistic coalition chances. 2. Fringe Parties: The market assigns implied probabilities of 37% to Citizens' Party and 43% to Danish People's Party for cabinet entry, whereas mainstream analysis views these parties as having near-zero coalition potential given the Red Bloc's lead. 3. Incumbents: The market significantly overestimates Venstre's (60%) chance of remaining in government, ignoring its collapse in the polls.
