Elections|$2.3m Vol|
195 days 6 hrsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
United Russia (ER)
YesNo
New People (NL)
YesNo
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
YesNo
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
YesNo
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
YesNo
Rodina
YesNo
Civic Platform (GP)
YesNo
AI Insights:
9 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market continues to exhibit significant 'Winner Bias.' Traders are conflating 'winning the parliamentary majority' (which ER will certainly do) with 'gaining the most seats' (which is extremely difficult for ER). United Russia (ER) currently holds 324 seats (72%), a state of absolute saturation. To win this prediction market, ER would need to expand significantly from this already massive baseline, which is statistically unlikely and politically unnecessary. Conversely, New People (NL), with a very low base (approx. 15 seats), fits the Kremlin's narrative of 'systemic renewal' and only needs to gain 15-20 seats to easily win the 'net gain' championship. ER trades at a massive premium to fair value, while NL and LDPR are undervalued.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all listed options. The sum of all Yes prices is currently 97.25c, which is below 100c.
Plan Description:
The sum of the Yes prices for all 7 options is currently 97.25 cents, implying a theoretical arbitrage space of about 2.75%. The risk lies in the possibility of an unlisted 'Other' party (e.g., Yabloko) gaining the most seats, which would result in a total loss. Given the closed nature of Russian politics, the listed parties cover the vast majority of scenarios, but non-zero risk remains.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 2¢
|Annualized yield: 5.2%
Rule Risk
The core rule focuses on 'Most Seats Gained' rather than 'Most Total Seats', which is a significant cognitive trap. For the dominant United Russia party (with 324 seats), gaining more seats is mathematically much harder than for smaller parties with a lower baseline. Additionally, the reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' in the context of Russian elections—which may lack independent observers—introduces a risk of dispute over the validity of the results or data sources.
Divergence
The market price (ER 73.5%) implies that because ER will win the election, it will also win this market. However, the principle of 'mean reversion' in political science and the consensus among Russia experts suggest that maintaining the current supermajority is ER's ceiling; further massive expansion (gaining the 'most new seats') is fundamentally unlikely. There is a severe divergence between market pricing and fundamental logic.
