All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mississippi
YesNo
Tennessee
YesNo
California
YesNo
Maine
YesNo
Washington
YesNo
Virginia
YesNo
Utah
YesNo
Oklahoma
YesNo
Massachusetts
YesNo
New Jersey
YesNo
Illinois
YesNo
New York
YesNo
West Virginia
YesNo
Pennsylvania
YesNo
Indiana
YesNo
South Dakota
YesNo
Alaska
YesNo
Missouri
YesNo
Minnesota
YesNo
North Dakota
YesNo
Kansas
YesNo
Hawaii
YesNo
Arkansas
YesNo
Oregon
YesNo
New Mexico
YesNo
Alabama
YesNo
Idaho
YesNo
Arizona
YesNo
Nebraska
YesNo
Louisiana
YesNo
South Carolina
YesNo
Rhode Island
YesNo
Wisconsin
YesNo
Colorado
YesNo
Vermont
YesNo
Wyoming
YesNo
Montana
YesNo
New Hampshire
YesNo
Nevada
YesNo
Connecticut
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 02:26 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current date is March 13, 2026. For [Virginia]: The price has hit 99c, effectively locking in 'Yes' due to recent high-level military meetings at the Pentagon (Arlington, VA) or Quantico amidst the Iran conflict, plus the confirmed LIV Golf event in Sterling in May. For [Pennsylvania]: An AP report from March 11 explicitly mentions Trump has 'made stops' in Pennsylvania recently as part of his 'Affordability Tour'. Although aggregate lists (like Wiki) may lag, the specific reporting confirms the visit, pushing fair value >90c. For [Mississippi]: The massive surge from 45c to 80c in 24h strongly suggests an imminent itinerary announcement, likely tied to the 'Affordability Tour' or disaster response. For [New Jersey]: A virtual certainty due to his summer residence at Bedminster and the scheduled LIV Golf event in August. For [Alaska]: Remains high value as the standard refueling stop for the confirmed April state visit to Beijing.
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Exotics
This is a moderately interesting political tracking market. While presidential travel is routine news, betting on specifically 'which states in which year' is a niche area for political geeks or dedicated trackers, making it novel but not absurd.
Movers
March 11, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Mississippi surged from 45c to 80c, likely due to market confirmation that the state has been added to Trump's ongoing 'Affordability Tour' or a scheduled disaster relief visit.
March 10, 2026 - March 11, 2026, Virginia surged from 86c to 99c, driven by confirmation of his attendance at military meetings within the state (Pentagon/Quantico) or solidified plans for the LIV Golf event in May.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. For [Pennsylvania], while mainstream reporting (AP) indicates he has already 'made stops' there recently, aggregate data sources (like Wikipedia's 2026 list) have not updated, keeping the market price (81.5c) below the certainty level (>90c) it implies. For [Virginia], the price is 99.5c despite a lack of headline rallies, indicating the market is pricing in non-public official travel (e.g., military meetings at the Pentagon) rather than public campaign events.
