All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Atlanta Hawks
YesNo
Charlotte Hornets
YesNo
Philadelphia 76ers
YesNo
Golden State Warriors
YesNo
Los Angeles Clippers
YesNo
Miami Heat
YesNo
Portland Trail Blazers
YesNo
Toronto Raptors
YesNo
Orlando Magic
YesNo
Milwaukee Bucks
YesNo
Phoenix Suns
YesNo
Los Angeles Lakers
YesNo
Houston Rockets
YesNo
Minnesota Timberwolves
YesNo
Cleveland Cavaliers
YesNo
Oklahoma City Thunder
YesNo
San Antonio Spurs
YesNo
Dallas Mavericks
YesNo
Detroit Pistons
YesNo
Boston Celtics
YesNo
New York Knicks
YesNo
Utah Jazz
YesNo
Denver Nuggets
YesNo
New Orleans Pelicans
YesNo
Chicago Bulls
YesNo
Memphis Grizzlies
YesNo
AI Insights:
14 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. Eastern Bubble Squeeze: There is a significant premium in the race for the East's 8th seed. The combined prices of the Hawks (55c), Hornets (48.5c), and 76ers (45c) total 148.5c, implying the market expects 1.5 of these teams to make the playoffs, whereas only 1 (or 0) realistically will. Based on the 'Pigeonhole Principle', their combined fair value should cap at ~100c, meaning all three are overvalued and should be adjusted to the 30-40c range. 2. Western Efficiency: The West market is relatively efficient; the Clippers (70c) are trending toward a fair value of 75c as their seeding solidifies. 3. Warriors Premium: GSW (33.5c) retains a 'star premium'; as a likely 10th seed needing two Play-In road wins, their statistical probability is historically below 25%.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Philadelphia 76ers prices plummeted from 54c to 41.5c (rebounding slightly to 45c), as market confidence in their ability to advance through the Play-In collapsed, likely due to key player injuries or pressure from surging rivals (Hawks/Hornets).
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Los Angeles Clippers prices surged from 60c to 70c, reflecting their solidification of a favorable seed in the West, significantly reducing the risk of falling into a single-elimination scenario.
Divergence
The main divergence lies in the survival probability of Eastern fringe teams. Market pricing implies a 'combined advancement rate' of ~150% for the Hawks, Hornets, and 76ers, which is mathematically impossible given the limited spots. Mainstream data models would typically judge the elimination probability of two of these teams much more harshly, while prediction market participants appear to be paying a premium for hedging. Additionally, the Warriors at 33.5% is higher than the <20% probability data models typically assign to a 10th seed.
