[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the odds distribution and volume for each "Tweet Count Bucket". Combine this with the actual @WhiteHouse post data from the past 7 days to update your assessment of the "fair value" range and potential arbitrage opportunities.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the odds distribution and volume for each "Tweet Count Bucket". Combine this with the actual @WhiteHouse post data from the past 7 days to update your assessment of the "fair value" range and potential arbitrage opportunities.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Core News Sourcing] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for the actual total number of @WhiteHouse posts (including reposts and quote posts) per week (7-day cycle) over the past month. Calculate the average and standard deviation to determine if the current central odds bucket (e.g., 100-119) aligns with the historical mean.

AI-powered analysis for: [Core News Sourcing] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for the actual total number of @WhiteHouse posts (including reposts and quote posts) per week (7-day cycle) over the past month. Calculate the average and standard deviation to determine if the current central odds bucket (e.g., 100-119) aligns with the historical mean.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Timeline Check] Official Schedule Confirmation: Search the official White House schedule (Fact Sheets / Press Schedules) to confirm if there are any major events between March 24 and March 31, 2026 (e.g., foreign visits, bill signings, State of the Union) that typically result in a spike in tweet volume.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Timeline Check] Official Schedule Confirmation: Search the official White House schedule (Fact Sheets / Press Schedules) to confirm if there are any major events between March 24 and March 31, 2026 (e.g., foreign visits, bill signings, State of the Union) that typically result in a spike in tweet volume.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Resolution Rules (ELI5)] Rule Pitfall Check: Explain the technical distinction between a standard "Reply" and a "Reply recorded on the main feed" on the X platform, and assess the historical frequency of the @WhiteHouse account using "main feed replies" to boost its post count.

AI-powered analysis for: [Resolution Rules (ELI5)] Rule Pitfall Check: Explain the technical distinction between a standard "Reply" and a "Reply recorded on the main feed" on the X platform, and assess the historical frequency of the @WhiteHouse account using "main feed replies" to boost its post count.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Data Source Reliability] X Tracker Status Check: Visit https://xtracker.polymarket.com and compare it with live X data to verify if the tracker has any latency or missed capture issues (especially regarding quote tweets and posts deleted within minutes).

AI-powered analysis for: [Data Source Reliability] X Tracker Status Check: Visit https://xtracker.polymarket.com and compare it with live X data to verify if the tracker has any latency or missed capture issues (especially regarding quote tweets and posts deleted within minutes).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Low Volatility Risk Assessment: Search for reasons that might cause the White House to remain "silent" next week (e.g., Presidential vacation, mourning periods, or a "lid" strategy), and list the top 3 potential factors that could result in a post count below 60.

AI-powered analysis for: [Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Low Volatility Risk Assessment: Search for reasons that might cause the White House to remain "silent" next week (e.g., Presidential vacation, mourning periods, or a "lid" strategy), and list the top 3 potential factors that could result in a post count below 60.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Driver Assessment] Breaking News Correlation: Search for any ongoing national emergencies or international crises as of today (March 21, 2026) that would typically force the White House account into a high-frequency "live update" or "crisis management" posting mode.

AI-powered analysis for: [Driver Assessment] Breaking News Correlation: Search for any ongoing national emergencies or international crises as of today (March 21, 2026) that would typically force the White House account into a high-frequency "live update" or "crisis management" posting mode.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Fractal Comparison] Year-Over-Year Analysis: Look up the White House account's post count for the exact same period last year (March 24-31, 2025) to analyze if there is a specific "end-of-March" seasonality pattern (e.g., end-of-quarter policy summaries).

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Fractal Comparison] Year-Over-Year Analysis: Look up the White House account's post count for the exact same period last year (March 24-31, 2025) to analyze if there is a specific "end-of-March" seasonality pattern (e.g., end-of-quarter policy summaries).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Time Decay Analysis] Pace Milestone Prediction: If the total post count in the first 48 hours (March 24-25) is below 25, mathematically analyze which high-volume options (e.g., 160-179, 180+) will see their win probability drop below 5%.

AI-powered analysis for: [Time Decay Analysis] Pace Milestone Prediction: If the total post count in the first 48 hours (March 24-25) is below 25, mathematically analyze which high-volume options (e.g., 160-179, 180+) will see their win probability drop below 5%.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Weekend Effect Analysis: Based on historical data, analyze the White House account's posting habits on weekends (March 28-29). By what percentage does volume typically decrease compared to weekdays, and how does this impact the total count projection?

AI-powered analysis for: [Potential Catalyst Prediction] Weekend Effect Analysis: Based on historical data, analyze the White House account's posting habits on weekends (March 28-29). By what percentage does volume typically decrease compared to weekdays, and how does this impact the total count projection?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Randomness vs. Predictability] Deleted Post Impact: Analyze the frequency of "post-and-delete" behavior by the White House account over the past year. Since the rules state "deleted posts count if captured," does frequent deletion constitute a significant "invisible increment" to the total?

AI-powered analysis for: [Randomness vs. Predictability] Deleted Post Impact: Analyze the frequency of "post-and-delete" behavior by the White House account over the past year. Since the rules state "deleted posts count if captured," does frequent deletion constitute a significant "invisible increment" to the total?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Community Disagreement Summary] Bull/Bear Argument Summary: Browse the Polymarket comment section or Discord to summarize the core logical disagreements between bulls (betting >140) and bears (betting <80), such as disputes over counting specific types of automated reposts.

AI-powered analysis for: [Community Disagreement Summary] Bull/Bear Argument Summary: Browse the Polymarket comment section or Discord to summarize the core logical disagreements between bulls (betting >140) and bears (betting <80), such as disputes over counting specific types of automated reposts.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Intuitive Odds Translation] Daily Average Conversion: Convert the top 3 odds buckets (e.g., 80-99, 100-119, 120-139) into a "Daily Average Post Count" and assess if the required "tweet density" to maintain that average is realistically sustainable.

AI-powered analysis for: [Intuitive Odds Translation] Daily Average Conversion: Convert the top 3 odds buckets (e.g., 80-99, 100-119, 120-139) into a "Daily Average Post Count" and assess if the required "tweet density" to maintain that average is realistically sustainable.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Long-Tail Risk Pricing: Evaluate if the odds for extreme options (<20 or 200+) are undervalued. Considering black swan events like a hacked account or suspension, what is the lottery value of buying the lowest bucket?

AI-powered analysis for: [Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Long-Tail Risk Pricing: Evaluate if the odds for extreme options (<20 or 200+) are undervalued. Considering black swan events like a hacked account or suspension, what is the lottery value of buying the lowest bucket?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Pace Monitoring Strategy: Define a time-based dynamic stop-loss line—e.g., "If the total count has not reached X by noon on Day 3 (March 27), immediately liquidate all 140+ positions."

AI-powered analysis for: [Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Pace Monitoring Strategy: Define a time-based dynamic stop-loss line—e.g., "If the total count has not reached X by noon on Day 3 (March 27), immediately liquidate all 140+ positions.". Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Kelly Criterion Sizing] Confidence Betting Calculation: Assuming you calculate a 40% true probability of the count falling in the "100-119" bucket based on the 4-week average, while the market implies 25%, how much capital should be allocated according to the Kelly Criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: [Kelly Criterion Sizing] Confidence Betting Calculation: Assuming you calculate a 40% true probability of the count falling in the "100-119" bucket based on the 4-week average, while the market implies 25%, how much capital should be allocated according to the Kelly Criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Fair Value] Optimal Limit Order Placement: For the most liquid middle bucket, suggest a limit order price that balances fast execution with capturing the spread edge, based on the current bid-ask spread.

AI-powered analysis for: [Fair Value] Optimal Limit Order Placement: For the most liquid middle bucket, suggest a limit order price that balances fast execution with capturing the spread edge, based on the current bid-ask spread.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Correlated Hedging] Combo Hedge Construction: If a prediction market for "@JoeBiden Personal Account Tweet Count" exists, analyze the correlation between the two accounts and suggest a hedging portfolio (e.g., Long White House high bucket, Short Biden low bucket).

AI-powered analysis for: [Correlated Hedging] Combo Hedge Construction: If a prediction market for "@JoeBiden Personal Account Tweet Count" exists, analyze the correlation between the two accounts and suggest a hedging portfolio (e.g., Long White House high bucket, Short Biden low bucket).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Micro-Capital] High Odds Play: For users with under $50 capital, recommend two "high payout but logically plausible" underdog buckets (e.g., in case of breaking news causing a flood of tweets) and provide the rationale.

AI-powered analysis for: [Micro-Capital] High Odds Play: For users with under $50 capital, recommend two "high payout but logically plausible" underdog buckets (e.g., in case of breaking news causing a flood of tweets) and provide the rationale.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[One-Page Trading Plan] Execution Checklist: Synthesize the analysis into a brief trading plan including: Primary Bucket, Max Entry Odds, Daily Check-in Times (to verify xtracker data), and a Contingency Plan if the first 3 days show abnormal data.

AI-powered analysis for: [One-Page Trading Plan] Execution Checklist: Synthesize the analysis into a brief trading plan including: Primary Bucket, Max Entry Odds, Daily Check-in Times (to verify xtracker data), and a Contingency Plan if the first 3 days show abnormal data.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026?

Politics|$11.7k Vol|

6 days 0 hrs

White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.24 17:19

Top Undervalued

+9.5¢

180-199(No)

+7.4¢

100-119(Yes)

+5.5¢

140-159(Yes)

White House # posts March 24 - March 31, 2026? AI analysis: • +9.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market is undergoing a significant downward correction. Although historical averages suggest Whi...

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

180-199

YesNo

24.5¢

75.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+9.5¢

100-119

YesNo

4.55¢

95.45¢

12¢

88¢

+7.4¢

0¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

This is a data prediction market based on specific social media activity volume. While not as extreme as 'Do aliens exist', predicting the number of tweets by a government official account over a specific period is a non-traditional financial topic, focusing on very micro-level behavioral data, which carries some novelty and randomness.

Movers

Mar 22, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, the price of the '200+' option plummeted from 35c to 16.5c, reason: the market recalibrated expectations at the start of the event window, deeming extreme high-frequency activity significantly less likely. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 22, 2026, prices for multiple low-frequency options (e.g., '20-39', '40-59') crashed from an anomalous 40.5c to normal levels, reason: likely correction of initial data feed anomalies or pricing errors due to lack of liquidity.