Politics|$288.5k Vol|
287 days 6 hrsWho will announce Presidential run before 2027? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Gretchen Whitmer
YesNo
Candace Owens
YesNo
Steve Bannon
YesNo
Andrew Yang
YesNo
Mark Kelly
YesNo
John Fetterman
YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
YesNo
Andy Beshear
YesNo
Donald Trump
YesNo
Gavin Newsom
YesNo
J.D. Vance
YesNo
Ron DeSantis
YesNo
Phil Murphy
YesNo
Liz Cheney
YesNo
Kamala Harris
YesNo
Pete Buttigieg
YesNo
John Thune
YesNo
Elon Musk
YesNo
Ted Cruz
YesNo
Hillary Clinton
YesNo
Michelle Obama
YesNo
Mark Cuban
YesNo
Tim Walz
YesNo
Ivanka Trump
YesNo
Barack Obama
YesNo
Donald Trump Jr.
YesNo
George Clooney
YesNo
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
YesNo
Kristi Noem
YesNo
Katie Britt
YesNo
Brian Kemp
YesNo
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
YesNo
Stephen A. Smith
YesNo
Gina Raimondo
YesNo
Josh Shapiro
YesNo
Greg Abbott
YesNo
LeBron James
YesNo
MrBeast
YesNo
Wes Moore
YesNo
Josh Hawley
YesNo
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
YesNo
Kim Kardashian
YesNo
Rand Paul
YesNo
Rahm Emanuel
YesNo
Roy Cooper
YesNo
Chelsea Clinton
YesNo
Jared Polis
YesNo
Oprah Winfrey
YesNo
Jon Stewart
YesNo
Marco Rubio
YesNo
Mike Pence
YesNo
Hunter Biden
YesNo
Elise Stefanik
YesNo
Raphael Warnock
YesNo
Cory Booker
YesNo
Tom Brady
YesNo
Zohran Mamdani
YesNo
Vivek Ramaswamy
YesNo
J.B. Pritzker
YesNo
Erika Kirk
YesNo
Nikki Haley
YesNo
Beto O’Rourke
YesNo
Marjorie Taylor Greene
YesNo
Jon Ossoff
YesNo
Glenn Youngkin
YesNo
Tucker Carlson
YesNo
Matt Gaetz
YesNo
Byron Donalds
YesNo
Tulsi Gabbard
YesNo
Bernie Sanders
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 09:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Gavin Newsom has explicitly stated he will decide after the 2026 midterms (November), leaving a dangerously narrow ~6-week window before the Dec 31 deadline; his 15.5c price underprices this timing risk. Candace Owens at 36c is a massive bubble disconnected from political reality, likely driven by social media hype or misinterpretation of fictional 'Fandom' wikis; as a commentator, her probability of an official run is far lower. J.D. Vance, as VP, is unlikely to announce before the midterms, making 19c rich. Andrew Yang remains the undervalued strategic early mover needing exposure.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on Candace Owens
Plan Description:
The surge in Candace Owens' Yes price from 14c to 36c in two days lacks substantive confirmation from mainstream media and is highly likely a reaction to misinterpreted fictional 'Future Fandom' wiki content or social media jest. As a commentator with no signs of campaign infrastructure, her probability of an official run is far below the market-implied 36%. Buying 'No' at 63.7c offers a high safety margin against this speculative bubble.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 36¢
|Annualized yield: 45%
Hedging
TSLA
While the announcement of most conventional politicians (e.g., Newsom or DeSantis) has negligible impact on broad financial markets (Score 1), the inclusion of Elon Musk creates a specific scenario. If he were to officially announce a run (regardless of eligibility), it would trigger immediate concerns regarding his focus on Tesla (TSLA), causing tradable volatility. Thus, significant hedging value exists for specific outcomes.
Movers
March 9, 2026 - March 11, 2026, Candace Owens' price skyrocketed from ~14.4c to 36.3c, driven by speculative social media chatter (and possibly fictional Wiki entries) regarding a 2028 run, triggering irrational retail FOMO.
March 6, 2026 - March 11, 2026, Phil Murphy experienced a massive 'pump and dump,' spiking to 89c on March 8 (likely due to a fake rumor) before crashing back to 19.5c as the rumor was debunked.
February 28, 2026 - March 4, 2026, Gavin Newsom's price cooled from 28.5c to 22c as the market digested the timing risk of his pledge to wait until 'after the midterms.'
Divergence
The most significant divergence is with Candace Owens. The prediction market assigns her a 36% probability of announcing, pricing her above top-tier political figures like VP Vance and Governor Newsom. In contrast, mainstream media and political analysts view her as a fringe figure or media entertainer who 'wouldn't even make the debate stage,' with no serious campaign signs to support such a high valuation.
