[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest MN-02 district updates, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value regarding Incumbent Angie Craig's plans and the winning probabilities of Little, Klein, and Berg.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest MN-02 district updates, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value regarding Incumbent Angie Craig's plans and the winning probabilities of Little, Klein, and Berg.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Core News Sourcing] Incumbent Status Verification: Search Google News and Twitter to confirm current MN-02 Democratic Rep. Angie Craig's plans for 2026 (re-election, Governor/Senate run, or retirement), as this is the primary driver determining if this becomes an 'open seat' contest among the listed candidates.

AI-powered analysis for: [Core News Sourcing] Incumbent Status Verification: Search Google News and Twitter to confirm current MN-02 Democratic Rep. Angie Craig's plans for 2026 (re-election, Governor/Senate run, or retirement), as this is the primary driver determining if this becomes an 'open seat' contest among the listed candidates.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Players Mining] MN DFL Endorsement Analysis: Search for the 'MN DFL endorsement process' to determine the historical influence of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's endorsement on primary results and identify key party powerbrokers controlling this endorsement.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Players Mining] MN DFL Endorsement Analysis: Search for the 'MN DFL endorsement process' to determine the historical influence of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's endorsement on primary results and identify key party powerbrokers controlling this endorsement.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Rule Pitfall] 'Other' Option Scope Definition: Based on Polymarket rules and historical precedents, clarify if the market resolves to 'Other' if incumbent Angie Craig runs for re-election and is not explicitly listed, as this is critical for odds calculation.

AI-powered analysis for: [Rule Pitfall] 'Other' Option Scope Definition: Based on Polymarket rules and historical precedents, clarify if the market resolves to 'Other' if incumbent Angie Craig runs for re-election and is not explicitly listed, as this is critical for odds calculation.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Institutional/Smart Money Tracking] FEC Fundraising Data Query: Visit the Federal Election Commission (FEC) website to check if campaign committees for Matt Little, Matt Klein, and Kaela Berg are established and check their current 'Cash on Hand' to determine if they are legitimate contenders or 'zombie candidates'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Institutional/Smart Money Tracking] FEC Fundraising Data Query: Visit the Federal Election Commission (FEC) website to check if campaign committees for Matt Little, Matt Klein, and Kaela Berg are established and check their current 'Cash on Hand' to determine if they are legitimate contenders or 'zombie candidates'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Key Timeline Check] MN Primary Calendar Verification: Search the official MN Secretary of State website to verify if August 11, 2026, is the confirmed primary date and check the candidate filing deadline to assess capital lock-up risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Key Timeline Check] MN Primary Calendar Verification: Search the official MN Secretary of State website to verify if August 11, 2026, is the confirmed primary date and check the candidate filing deadline to assess capital lock-up risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Community Disagreement Summary] Local vs. External Narrative Divergence: Compare discussions in the Polymarket comment section with local Minnesota political forums (e.g., Reddit r/MinnesotaPolitics) to summarize discrepancies between local perception of candidates like Matt Little and external speculator assumptions.

AI-powered analysis for: [Community Disagreement Summary] Local vs. External Narrative Divergence: Compare discussions in the Polymarket comment section with local Minnesota political forums (e.g., Reddit r/MinnesotaPolitics) to summarize discrepancies between local perception of candidates like Matt Little and external speculator assumptions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-Term Lock-up Yield Calculation: Given the August 2026 resolution, calculate if the implied annualized return of current odds exceeds the yield of parking capital in DeFi protocols or US Treasuries (Risk-free Rate) until that date.

AI-powered analysis for: [Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-Term Lock-up Yield Calculation: Given the August 2026 resolution, calculate if the implied annualized return of current odds exceeds the yield of parking capital in DeFi protocols or US Treasuries (Risk-free Rate) until that date.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment] Low Liquidity Warning: With a total volume of only ~$24k, qualitatively assess the slippage impact of a $500+ entry on specific candidates (e.g., Matt Klein) and the difficulty of exiting the position.

AI-powered analysis for: [Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment] Low Liquidity Warning: With a total volume of only ~$24k, qualitatively assess the slippage impact of a $500+ entry on specific candidates (e.g., Matt Klein) and the difficulty of exiting the position.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Bearish Thesis Search: Deliberately search for 'Why Matt Little won't run for Congress' or negative news/statements of non-candidacy to list the top 3 reasons why these specific candidates might not even appear on the ballot.

AI-powered analysis for: [Opposing Arguments Retrieval] Bearish Thesis Search: Deliberately search for 'Why Matt Little won't run for Congress' or negative news/statements of non-candidacy to list the top 3 reasons why these specific candidates might not even appear on the ballot.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[KOL Sentiment Analysis] Local Pundit Perspectives: Search for early 2026 predictions for MN-02 from prominent Minnesota political journalists (e.g., columnists from MinnPost or Star Tribune) to identify if there are any 'dark horses' not yet priced in by the market.

AI-powered analysis for: [KOL Sentiment Analysis] Local Pundit Perspectives: Search for early 2026 predictions for MN-02 from prominent Minnesota political journalists (e.g., columnists from MinnPost or Star Tribune) to identify if there are any 'dark horses' not yet priced in by the market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity Strategy] 'Stink Bid' Placement: Formulate a strategy to place extremely low bids (Stink Bids) deep in the order book for 'Other' or long-shot candidates to catch fat-finger errors or liquidity crunches.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity Strategy] 'Stink Bid' Placement: Formulate a strategy to place extremely low bids (Stink Bids) deep in the order book for 'Other' or long-shot candidates to catch fat-finger errors or liquidity crunches.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Fractal Comparison] District Primary Patterns: Search MN-02 Democratic primary data over the last 10 years to analyze whether 'open seat' scenarios typically result in crowded competitive fields or quickly consolidated single-candidate races.

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Fractal Comparison] District Primary Patterns: Search MN-02 Democratic primary data over the last 10 years to analyze whether 'open seat' scenarios typically result in crowded competitive fields or quickly consolidated single-candidate races.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Higher Office Announcement Date: Predict the potential time window for Angie Craig to announce a run for higher office (vacating the MN-02 seat), which would be the core catalyst for volatility in this market.

AI-powered analysis for: [Potential Catalyst Prediction] Higher Office Announcement Date: Predict the potential time window for Angie Craig to announce a run for higher office (vacating the MN-02 seat), which would be the core catalyst for volatility in this market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Incumbent Re-election Signal: Define a clear fundamental indicator (e.g., Angie Craig officially filing FEC forms for House Re-election) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate liquidation of long positions on Little/Klein/Berg.

AI-powered analysis for: [Stop-Loss Red Line Setting] Incumbent Re-election Signal: Define a clear fundamental indicator (e.g., Angie Craig officially filing FEC forms for House Re-election) that, if triggered, dictates an immediate liquidation of long positions on Little/Klein/Berg.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Lottery vs. Investment Check: Analyze the current odds for Matt Little et al. to determine if this market is effectively 'buying a lottery ticket on Angie Craig retiring' (low win rate, high odds) or an investment based on candidate merit.

AI-powered analysis for: [Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis] Lottery vs. Investment Check: Analyze the current odds for Matt Little et al. to determine if this market is effectively 'buying a lottery ticket on Angie Craig retiring' (low win rate, high odds) or an investment based on candidate merit.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation] MN Politics Tracking List: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or Newsletters (e.g., Morning Take) dedicated to Minnesota legislative and electoral dynamics as exclusive alpha sources for this market.

AI-powered analysis for: [High-Quality Niche Sources Recommendation] MN Politics Tracking List: Recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or Newsletters (e.g., Morning Take) dedicated to Minnesota legislative and electoral dynamics as exclusive alpha sources for this market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Time Decay (Theta) Analysis] Who Benefits from Stagnation: If there is zero news regarding the 2026 election for the next 6 months, analyze whether time decay (Theta) hurts 'Yes' holders (opportunity cost) or benefits 'No' holders (reduction of uncertainty).

AI-powered analysis for: [Time Decay (Theta) Analysis] Who Benefits from Stagnation: If there is zero news regarding the 2026 election for the next 6 months, analyze whether time decay (Theta) hurts 'Yes' holders (opportunity cost) or benefits 'No' holders (reduction of uncertainty).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation] Low-Info Position Sizing: Considering the extreme time horizon (2026) and information asymmetry, suggest a maximum portfolio allocation percentage for this type of 'long-term, low-liquidity, binary' political bet based on Kelly principles.

AI-powered analysis for: [Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation] Low-Info Position Sizing: Considering the extreme time horizon (2026) and information asymmetry, suggest a maximum portfolio allocation percentage for this type of 'long-term, low-liquidity, binary' political bet based on Kelly principles.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[One-Page Trading Plan Generation] 'Open Seat' Game Plan: Synthesize the above info to generate a brief trading plan centered on the 'Will Angie Craig retire?' narrative, defining entry odds, take-profit targets (e.g., moment of retirement announcement), and invalidation conditions.

AI-powered analysis for: [One-Page Trading Plan Generation] 'Open Seat' Game Plan: Synthesize the above info to generate a brief trading plan centered on the 'Will Angie Craig retire?' narrative, defining entry odds, take-profit targets (e.g., moment of retirement announcement), and invalidation conditions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Politics|$31.2k Vol|

99 days 20 hrs

MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Found +28¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 23:59

Top Undervalued

+28¢

Matt Little(No)

+27¢

Matt Klein(Yes)

+1.9¢

Kaela Berg(Yes)

MN-02 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +28¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite recent short-term speculative fluctuations, Matt Little's price remains high at 64.5c, large...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Matt Little

YesNo

68¢

32¢

40¢

60¢

0¢

+28¢

Matt Klein

YesNo

18¢

82¢

45¢

55¢

+27¢

0¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

2026-04-29 to 2026-05-01, Matt Little's price surged from 64c to 74c before dropping back to 64.5c, while Matt Klein's price experienced heavy volatility, spiking from 7c to 18.5c before falling to 9c. This was caused by short-term capital games and rapid profit-taking as the primary date approaches. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-16, Kaela Berg's price spiked from 18.65c to 35.8c (on April 15) before crashing back to 14.95c, driven by short-term speculative trading followed by rapid profit-taking. 2026-03-28 to 2026-03-31, Matt Little's price dropped from 57c to 43.5c, while Kaela Berg's price surged from 4.15c to a peak of 19.5c (settling at 15.45c). The reason is a shift in market momentum, with capital rotating out of Little to bet on Berg as a potential dark horse. 2026-03-16 to 2026-03-17, Matt Little's price surged from 52c to 65c (+13c), while Matt Klein dropped from 35c to 26.5c. The reason involves a repricing of the 'Open Seat' race following incumbent Angie Craig's departure, with capital flowing back to the high-name-ID candidate (Little) and ignoring his previous electoral weakness. 2026-02-26 to 2026-02-28, Matt Little's price crashed from 64.5c to 39c, driven by an initial bubble burst and a brief market rotation back to fundamentals.

Divergence

There is a divergence between current prediction market prices and mainstream fundamental expectations. Market capital is highly concentrated on Matt Little (64.5%), awarding him an excessive name-recognition premium, while completely discounting Matt Klein (only 9%), who possesses stronger establishment and union support. In a competitive Democratic primary, candidates with deep organizational resources often have better chances; thus, the market pricing appears overly speculative.