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Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Cait Conley
YesNo
Effie Phillips-Staley
YesNo
Peter Chatzky
YesNo
John Sullivan
YesNo
Mike Sacks
YesNo
John Cappello
YesNo
Beth Davidson
YesNo
Jessica Reinmann
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 05:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market's total implied probability stands at a significantly overbought 130%. No single candidate warrants a 63c valuation in a competitive primary 3 months out; Cait Conley's price is likely a liquidity-driven bubble. While the recent recovery in Beth Davidson and Peter Chatzky reflects a return to fundamentals, the overall market needs a downward correction to align with the 100% mathematical limit. A 'one favorite, several contenders' model is applied, drastically cutting Conley's premium.
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Exotics
This is a relatively niche political market. While not as mainstream as a presidential election, U.S. House primaries are part of the regular political process. However, specific primary candidates for the NY-17 district constitute obscure knowledge for most non-locals or non-political junkies.
Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Cait Conley's price dropped significantly from 77c to 63c (-14c). The reason is a market correction following excessive speculation (prices neared 80c), with profit-taking occurring. Capital appears to be rotating into undervalued candidates like Beth Davidson (+7c) and Peter Chatzky, indicating a reassessment of price distortions caused by illiquidity.
February 25, 2026 - February 26, 2026, The market experienced a violent capital rotation. Cait Conley's price surged from 48c to 65.5c (+17.5c), while previous gainers crashed: Mike Sacks plummeted from 27.2c to 12.5c, and Peter Chatzky dropped to 16.85c. The reason is speculative capital aggressively rotating between top candidates, creating a seesaw effect.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Cait Conley's price plummeted from 79.5c to 60.5c, while Mike Sacks's price surged from 15c to 31.2c. This indicates a sharp market correction as Conley's previous valuation was unsustainable.
Divergence
Significant mathematical divergence exists. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is approximately 130%, far exceeding the logical limit of 100%. This implies the market is in a state of irrational exuberance, and Cait Conley's 63% implied win rate is excessive for a crowded primary without overwhelming polling support.
