Politics|$2.9m Vol|
287 days 7 hrsWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Benjamin Netanyahu
YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot
YesNo
Naftali Bennett
YesNo
Moshe Feiglin
YesNo
Yossi Cohen
YesNo
Yariv Levin
YesNo
Ayelet Shaked
YesNo
Gideon Sa’ar
YesNo
Yoaz Hendel
YesNo
Itamar Ben Gvir
YesNo
Yair Golan
YesNo
Benny Gantz
YesNo
Yair Lapid
YesNo
Avigdor Lieberman
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 16:06 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is in a period of extreme volatility, making fair value difficult to anchor due to the lack of a clear trend. Netanyahu's price has experienced a violent 'roller coaster' in the last 48 hours (46c -> 58c -> 39c). Yesterday's 'V-shaped recovery' has been completely invalidated by today's crash, breaking below previous lows, indicating that confidence in the governing coalition has nearly collapsed and panic selling is dominant again. Bennett holds steady at 30c, confirming his status as the 'safest alternative'. Eizenkot rebounded slightly to 13c, attracting some capital fleeing Netanyahu. Current pricing reflects a reelection probability for Netanyahu significantly below 50%, with extremely unstable market sentiment.
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Hedging
Crude Oil
EIS
The outcome of the Israeli election directly impacts regional geopolitical risk. A victory for a hardline right-wing coalition (Netanyahu and allies) could maintain or escalate tensions, potentially boosting risk premiums for Crude Oil and Gold. Conversely, a more centrist coalition might ease regional anxiety. Additionally, the Israeli equity market (proxied by the EIS ETF) will react significantly to domestic political stability and the passage of the budget, especially given the ongoing 2026 budget crisis.
Movers
Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu's price crashed from 58c to 39c (a 19c drop). The reason is that yesterday's confidence recovery proved ephemeral; the market likely encountered substantial new negative news (such as a key ally defecting or worsening security), leading to a stampede of bulls exiting.
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu's price surged from 46.5c to 58c due to a brief 'mean reversion' in the market, correcting the previous oversold condition.
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, Naftali Bennett's price rose from 27.5c to 32.5c while Gadi Eizenkot slumped, as capital within the anti-Netanyahu bloc consolidated bets onto Bennett.
