[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread given the extremely low volume ($1.25), assessing the slippage risk for entry, and verify which listed candidates (e.g., Pete Hegseth, RFK Jr.) have officially assumed office to confirm they are eligible for 'departure' resolution versus those who are still merely nominees.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread given the extremely low volume ($1.25), assessing the slippage risk for entry, and verify which listed candidates (e.g., Pete Hegseth, RFK Jr.) have officially assumed office to confirm they are eligible for 'departure' resolution versus those who are still merely nominees.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Historical Frequency Statistics] Search for the timeline of cabinet resignations during Trump's first term (2017-2021), specifically calculating how many days into the term the first member (e.g., Michael Flynn) resigned, and use this historical base rate to evaluate the realistic probability of the 'None before 2027' outcome.

AI-powered analysis for: [Historical Frequency Statistics] Search for the timeline of cabinet resignations during Trump's first term (2017-2021), specifically calculating how many days into the term the first member (e.g., Michael Flynn) resigned, and use this historical base rate to evaluate the realistic probability of the 'None before 2027' outcome.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the opportunity cost for holding the 'None before 2027' position; given the potential 2-year capital lock-up, compare the implied return against current risk-free DeFi yields to determine if the premium justifies the duration risk.

AI-powered analysis for: [Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the opportunity cost for holding the 'None before 2027' position; given the potential 2-year capital lock-up, compare the implied return against current risk-free DeFi yields to determine if the premium justifies the duration risk.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$46.6k Vol|

287 days 5 hrs

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Sean Duffy

YesNo

26.9¢

73.1¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+24.9¢

Doug Burgum

YesNo

23.95¢

76.05¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+22¢

Susie Wiles

YesNo

26.2¢

73.8¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+21.2¢

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

YesNo

23¢

77¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+11¢

None before 2027

YesNo

5.3¢

94.7¢

15¢

85¢

+9.7¢

0¢

Pete Hegseth

YesNo

8.45¢

91.55¢

18¢

82¢

+9.5¢

0¢

Pam Bondi

YesNo

2.7¢

97.3¢

8¢

92¢

+5.3¢

0¢

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

YesNo

5¢

95¢

10¢

90¢

+5¢

0¢

Tulsi Gabbard

YesNo

26.85¢

73.15¢

22¢

78¢

0¢

+4.8¢

Scott Bessent

YesNo

0.15¢

99.85¢

2¢

98¢

+1.8¢

0¢

Marco Rubio

YesNo

2.75¢

97.25¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+0.7¢

Lee Zeldin

YesNo

1.4¢

98.6¢

2¢

98¢

+0.6¢

0¢

Jamieson Greer

YesNo

32.3¢

67.7¢

0¢

Mike Waltz

YesNo

25.15¢

74.85¢

0¢

Howard Lutnick

YesNo

14.6¢

85.4¢

0¢

Scott Turner

YesNo

4¢

96¢

0¢

J.D. Vance

YesNo

7.95¢

92.05¢

0¢

Russell T. Vought

YesNo

2.1¢

97.9¢

0¢

Doug Collins

YesNo

1.85¢

98.15¢

0¢

Chris Wright

YesNo

1.65¢

98.35¢

0¢

John Ratcliffe

YesNo

19.65¢

80.35¢

0¢

Linda McMahon

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

Kelly Loeffler

YesNo

18¢

82¢

0¢

Brooke Rollins

YesNo

1¢

99¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.06 15:40 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the market context in March 2026, Kristi Noem appears to be no longer a valid option (or has already left/removed), shifting the spotlight to Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth. Gabbard's friction with the intelligence community as DNI and Hegseth's ongoing scandals (described as a 'negative-headline machine' in search results) make them the highest flight risks. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is also cited as being on the 'hot seat'. In contrast, core figures like Rubio and Burgum remain stable. Given the anomalous market pricing (all options at ~40c), fair values are derived entirely from external political risk analysis.

Hedging

LMT

XBI

This event has significant hedging value for specific sectors. The most critical correlation is with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (HHS); if he leaves, the biotech sector (XBI) could see sharp volatility due to the removal of regulatory uncertainty. Similarly, the departure of Pete Hegseth (Defense) could impact defense contractors (e.g., LMT). If Scott Bessent (Treasury) were to leave, it would create a macro-level shock to broad indices and Treasury yields.

Divergence

The market pricing (all options at ~40%) indicates total liquidity failure or mispricing, completely divorced from mainstream media and expert consensus. Expert consensus concentrates departure risk heavily on a few controversial figures like Gabbard and Hegseth, while the vast majority of cabinet members (e.g., Rubio, Bessent) should have a short-term departure risk below 5%. The current market fails to reflect this risk stratification.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? - AI Odds Analysis

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