All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Kristi Noem
YesNo
Kash Patel
YesNo
John Ratcliffe
YesNo
Tulsi Gabbard
YesNo
David Sacks
YesNo
Susie Wiles
YesNo
Lee Zeldin
YesNo
Howard Lutnick
YesNo
Pam Bondi
YesNo
Dan Scavino
YesNo
Stephen Miller
YesNo
Karoline Leavitt
YesNo
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
YesNo
Scott Bessent
YesNo
Tom Homan
YesNo
Marco Rubio
YesNo
Pete Hegseth
YesNo
Russell Vought
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 01:16 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market pricing shows significant lag and confusion regarding the definition of 'Administration'. 1. **Kristi Noem (DHS)**: While Trump announced her move to 'Special Envoy', mainstream media widely reports her as 'fired' and 'leaving the Cabinet'. Such envoy roles are often face-saving, non-core positions, or she may fully depart shortly. The 50c price underestimates the risk of her substantive departure; FV raised to 70c. 2. **Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)**: Reports of her being 'AWOL' and anti-war during the Iran conflict are red flags. Open ideological conflict between an Intel Chief and the President during wartime usually precedes a quick exit. The market price (41c) is too low; FV set at 60c. 3. **Pete Hegseth (SecDef)**: Despite scandal pressure from the Iranian school bombing, presidents rarely fire Defense Secretaries in the opening weeks of a war. His status as a 'wartime chief' offers protection. The market is overreacting to the scandal; FV lowered to 35c. 4. **Kash Patel (FBI)**: He was *just* confirmed on Feb 20, 2026. As a loyalist less than a month into a 10-year term, the probability of him leaving before 2027 is extremely low. The market (37c) is severely mispriced; FV should be 20c.
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
This market includes key economic officials like Scott Bessent (Treasury) and Howard Lutnick (Commerce). A departure of Bessent would be viewed as significant policy uncertainty, directly triggering volatility in US Treasury yields and the Dollar Index (at least Score 3). RFK Jr.'s status affects the healthcare sector, while changes involving pro-crypto officials (like those linked to Lutnick/Vance) could have short-term sentiment impacts on Bitcoin.
Movers
Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, Pete Hegseth's price surged from 31.5c to 46c. The reason is his involvement in alleged war crimes (bombing a civilian school) during Operation 'Epic Fury' in Iran, coupled with a disastrous press conference behavior, leading to calls for his immediate firing.
Mar 12, 2026 - Mar 13, 2026, David Sacks's price jumped from 29c to 42c. The reason is likely contagion fear following Noem's firing or a reassessment of the stability of his part-time 'Czar' advisory role.
Mar 05, 2026 - Mar 06, 2026, Kristi Noem's price surged from 45c to 66.9c before retracing. The reason was Trump's official announcement removing her as DHS Secretary, though the subsequent 'Special Envoy' appointment introduced ambiguity regarding her technical status within the administration.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. 1. **Kash Patel (FBI)**: The market prices him at 37c (~37% chance of leaving), but he was *just* confirmed by the Senate 3 weeks ago (Feb 20). For a super-loyalist fresh off a confirmation battle, the risk of near-term departure is minimal; the market is severely overestimating the risk. 2. **Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)**: The market price (41c) is flat, yet mainstream media reports she is 'AWOL' and opposes the current war in Iran. Such fundamental policy conflict is usually the strongest signal for a Cabinet departure, and the market is reacting too slowly.
