All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Sean O’Malley
YesNo
Cory Sandhagen
YesNo
Henry Cejudo
YesNo
Merab Dvalishvili
YesNo
Ricky Simón
YesNo
Dominick Cruz
YesNo
Deiveson Figueiredo
YesNo
Alexandre Pantoja
YesNo
Payton Talbott
YesNo
Pedro Munhoz
YesNo
Rob Font
YesNo
Song Yadong
YesNo
Alexander Volkanovski
YesNo
Umar Nurmagomedov
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 04:50 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Petr Yan reclaimed the title in Dec 2025 but underwent back surgery in early 2026, targeting a Summer return. Merab Dvalishvili (former champ) has explicitly stated he will 'wait as long as it takes' for the trilogy bout, eliminating the risk of him taking another fight. While Sean O'Malley won in Jan 2026, the UFC typically prioritizes trilogies for 1-1 records involving dominant fighters. O'Malley's crash from 33c to 5c indicates the 'line-cutting' narrative has collapsed, but given his star power and Yan's desire for the 'White House card' (politics permitting), O'Malley retains a slim 'money fight' chance, making his current 5.5c price slightly oversold.
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Movers
March 10, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Merab Dvalishvili's price surged from 67c to 89c, while Sean O'Malley crashed from 25c to 5.5c. Reason: Merab Dvalishvili publicly committed to 'waiting for Yan's recovery for the trilogy,' regardless of the timeline. This statement removed the uncertainty of him taking an interim bout, cementing 'Yan vs Merab 3' as the undisputed plan, causing the market to dump speculative O'Malley shares and flock to Merab.
