Elections|$17.4k Vol|
75 days 4 hrsWho will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Scott Wiener
YesNo
Saikat Chakrabarti
YesNo
Connie Chan
YesNo
David Ganezer
YesNo
Jingchao Xiong
YesNo
Darren Helton
YesNo
Cole Bettles
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 20:34 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Under California's 'Top-Two' primary system, placing 'First' (Most Votes) is distinct from 'Advancing' (Top 2). Scott Wiener, as the establishment/moderate frontrunner succeeding Pelosi, commands the most solid base. With the progressive vote splitting between Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan, and the Republican (David Ganezer) having a negligible ceiling in SF (~15%), Wiener only needs ~35-40% of the vote to secure the #1 spot. The market is severely overvaluing Chakrabarti for 'First Place' (26c), likely confusing this with his probability of 'Advancing' (which Kalshi pegs at 70%). As a challenger, Chakrabarti's path is to fight for second place to reach the general election, not to beat Wiener in the primary. Connie Chan's price collapse reflects her fading campaign, with votes consolidating around Chakrabarti, which actually reinforces the certainty of Wiener taking first place.
Sign up to view more information
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Other prediction platforms (like Kalshi) rate Scott Wiener's probability of 'Advancing' at 97%, implying he is extremely secure in the top two. In a crowded field where progressives (Chakrabarti/Chan) are splitting votes, the 'must-advance' establishment frontrunner typically has an >80% chance of placing first. However, Polymarket prices Wiener at only 62c and Chakrabarti at 26c (implying a 1/4 chance of placing first). This suggests Polymarket participants may be mistakenly equating 'Advancing probability' (Making the runoff) with 'Placing First in the Primary,' resulting in Wiener being undervalued and Chakrabarti overvalued.
