Who will Trump endorse?
Trump|$138.1k Vol|
time185 days 3 hrs

Who will Trump endorse? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 2 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+2¢
Andy Barr - KY-Sen(No)
+1.5¢
Susan Collins - ME-Sen(Yes)
+1.4¢
Ken Paxton - TX-Sen(No)

Who will Trump endorse? AI analysis: • +2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Andy Barr's price has surged to 97%, indicating near market certainty that he will secure the endors...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Denver on May 4?
Weather|$13.0k Vol|
time1 days 15 hrs

Highest temperature in Denver on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+1.3¢
58-59°F(Yes)
+0.7¢
60°F or higher(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from the NWS and other major meteorological sources, the high temp...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific location is a relatively niche data prediction market. While everyone checks the weather, ordinary people rarely bet on the precise temperature range of a specific weather station on a given day.
AI Analysis
How long does it typically take for Wunderground to finalize the daily high temperature data for the Buckley Space Force Base Station (KBKF), and is there a risk of delayed resolution due to data updates?
Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?
Culture|$215.3k Vol|
time1 days 19 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 2 - May 4, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
40-64(Yes)
+2.5¢
65-89(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Elon Musk's daily posting volume on X (excluding standard replies) typically hovers around 20 to 30 ...
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Rule Risk
The rules contain several potential pitfalls: standard replies do not count, but 'main feed replies' do, which can cause ambiguity. Deleted posts only count if caught by the tracker within a ~5-minute window, creating a technical risk. Furthermore, resolution strictly relies on Polymarket's proprietary tracker, which might desync from X's actual data.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of tweets a billionaire makes in a specific 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven entertainment market. The general public does not ponder this, though it serves as a typical, highly entertaining meme market within crypto prediction circles.
Movers
Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the '40-64' option price continued to rise from 43.5c to 65.5c, while the '65-89' option fell further from 38c to 16.5c. This occurred as the tracking period was about to start, and the market adjusted expectations based on his latest activity levels, solidifying the belief in a moderate posting frequency. Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '65-89' option dropped significantly from 38c to 26.5c, while the '40-64' option rose from 43.5c to 51.5c. This reflects an initial shift in market expectations regarding Musk's posting frequency, predicting it will more likely fall in the lower range.
AI Analysis
Explain in simple terms exactly which of Elon Musk's tweets count toward the May 2-May 4 total, and how the xtracker handles deleted posts and replies.
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?
Politics|$329.4k Vol|
time28 days 3 hrs

Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?

Top Undervalued
+8.7¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Jimmy Kimmel is facing intense backlash and calls for his firing from Donald and Melania Trump over ...
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Exotics
This is a typical entertainment and gossip prediction focusing on a celebrity's career changes. While not as common as political elections or macroeconomics, it is a standard pop-culture topic within prediction markets.
AI Analysis
What recent controversies, gossip, or viral drama have sparked rumors about Jimmy Kimmel potentially being fired or resigning from ABC?
Alabama Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$29.8k Vol|
time16 days 3 hrs

Alabama Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.9¢
Ken McFeeters(Yes)
+0.1¢
Tommy Tuberville(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Tommy Tuberville continues to maintain a prohibitive lead. With major rivals out and previous reside...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Alabama Governor Republican Primary', analyze whether the $11.6k volume is concentrated on Tommy Tuberville or Ken McFeeters, and assess if the current price reflects true primary winning probabilities given the liquidity.
UEFA Europa Conference League: Team to reach final
Soccer|$14.8k Vol|
time5 days 3 hrs

UEFA Europa Conference League: Team to reach final

Top Undervalued
+16.3¢
Crystal Palace(No)
+12¢
Strasbourg(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of 'Yes' prices for the 4 teams is currently around 233.5%. Assuming these are the 4 semi-fi...
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Movers
Between April 28, 2026, and May 1, 2026, Rayo Vallecano surged from 47c to 67.5c, Crystal Palace surged from 73c to 92c, and Shakhtar Donetsk plummeted from 29.5c to 7.5c, driven by first-leg match results giving some teams massive advantages, while the overall market pricing structure became imbalanced again. Between April 6, 2026, and April 7, 2026, all options experienced massive price crashes. For instance, Mainz plummeted from 46c to 12.5c, AEK Athens from 42.5c to 12c, and Strasbourg from 45c to 24.5c. The reason is a severe market correction; participants had previously pushed the total implied probability up to ~350%, realized the logical flaw (only 2 teams can reach the final), and initiated a mass sell-off that overcorrected the total probability down to 135%.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume of ~$3.45, analyze the Order Book Depth on Polymarket and compare the implied probabilities of favorites like Crystal Palace and Fiorentina against their 'To Reach Final' odds on mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., Bet365) to identify severe mispricing or liquidity traps.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Andy Barr - KY-Sen
YesNo
97¢
3¢
95¢
5¢
0¢
+2¢
Susan Collins - ME-Sen
YesNo
28.5¢
71.5¢
30¢
70¢
+1.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 4 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The main risk lies in 'multiple endorsements' or 'ambiguous statements'. While the rule specifies resolution based on who he announces he will vote for or endorses, in politics, he might praise someone without a formal endorsement, or switch stances within the same race. Furthermore, the options mix different states and offices (TX-Sen, CA-Gov, etc.). While it looks like a single choice market, these are independent races. Ambiguity arises if he endorses one in the primary and another in the general, or withdraws an endorsement. The 'No' condition is clear, but the definition of a 'formal' endorsement can sometimes be subjective in Trump's communication style.
Movers
2026-04-30 to 2026-05-02, Andy Barr (KY-Sen) surged from 56c to 97c due to strong market signals anticipating an imminent official endorsement. Meanwhile, Susan Collins (ME-Sen) plummeted from 49c to 22c before bouncing to 28.5c, indicating a severe cooling of expectations due to negative news or lack of support signals. 2026-04-22 to 2026-04-25, Ken Paxton fell from 43.95c to 37.5c, Collins dropped to 49c, and Barr rose to 65c, reflecting adjustments in endorsement expectations. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-17, John Cornyn rebounded from 16.3c to 27.15c due to speculation about establishment maneuvering. 2026-04-08 to 2026-04-10, Steve Hilton surged to 82.4c, while Susan Collins plunged to 41.5c. 2026-04-01 to 2026-04-03, John Cornyn dropped to 23.65c, while Collins saw rollercoaster swings. 2026-03-23 to 2026-03-27, Cornyn dropped to 49.95c, Paxton fluctuated amid intense internal competition in Texas. 2026-03-19 to 2026-03-21, Cornyn plunged to 67c due to anxiety over Paxton's lobbying. 2026-03-12 to 2026-03-14, Barr surged to 58c then corrected. 2026-03-03 to 2026-03-05, Cornyn skyrocketed to 96c, setting the initial landscape.

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