All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Ken Paxton - TX-Sen
YesNo
John Cornyn - TX-Sen
YesNo
Susan Collins - ME-Sen
YesNo
Steve Hilton - CA-Gov
YesNo
Andy Barr - KY-Sen
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 12:45 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The macro narrative continues to support Trump's 'Party Unity' strategy. John Cornyn's price, despite a brief dip, quickly recovered to ~85c; fundamentals remain unchanged and the previous endorsement expectation is solid, warranting a near-certain fair value (95c). Ken Paxton remains non-competitive. The new market focus is Andy Barr (KY-Sen), who experienced extreme volatility (17c->58c->38c) in 24 hours. This suggests rumors regarding the Kentucky Senate seat are circulating, but without official confirmation, he is assigned a speculative neutral valuation of 40c. Steve Hilton and Susan Collins remain stable, reflecting continued confidence in establishment/high-profile candidates.
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Rule Risk
The main risk lies in 'multiple endorsements' or 'ambiguous statements'. While the rule specifies resolution based on who he announces he will vote for or endorses, in politics, he might praise someone without a formal endorsement, or switch stances within the same race. Furthermore, the options mix different states and offices (TX-Sen, CA-Gov, etc.). While it looks like a single choice market, these are independent races. Ambiguity arises if he endorses one in the primary and another in the general, or withdraws an endorsement. The 'No' condition is clear, but the definition of a 'formal' endorsement can sometimes be subjective in Trump's communication style.
Movers
2026-03-12 to 2026-03-14, Andy Barr (KY-Sen) surged from 17c to 58c before correcting to 38c. The reason is likely breaking rumors regarding the Kentucky Senate endorsement, triggering a speculative pump, followed by a correction as official confirmation failed to materialize immediately.
2026-03-12 to 2026-03-14, John Cornyn (TX-Sen) dipped from 85c to 72c before recovering to 84c. The reason appears to be temporary capital rotation into the volatile Barr market or brief panic over the lack of a formal written statement, but fundamentals quickly restored the price.
2026-03-03 to 2026-03-05, John Cornyn skyrocketed from ~22c to 96c while Ken Paxton crashed. The reason was a near-certain endorsement of Cornyn by Trump, settling the Texas race landscape.
