All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Himself
YesNo
Daniel Penny
YesNo
Eric Adams
YesNo
Young Thug
YesNo
Roger Stone
YesNo
Sam Bankman-Fried
YesNo
Edward Snowden
YesNo
Steve Bannon
YesNo
Julian Assange
YesNo
Donald Brodie
YesNo
Stefan Brodie
YesNo
Elon Musk
YesNo
Keonne Rodriguez
YesNo
Ghislaine Maxwell
YesNo
Matt Gaetz
YesNo
Nicolas Maduro
YesNo
Diddy
YesNo
Ryan Salame
YesNo
Hunter Biden
YesNo
Martin Shkreli
YesNo
Do Kwon
YesNo
Antoine Massey
YesNo
Derek Chauvin
YesNo
Elizabeth Holmes
YesNo
Joe Exotic
YesNo
Roger Ver
YesNo
Bob Menendez
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The Brodie brothers (Stefan & Donald), as major donors to Trump's 'ballroom project', fit Trump's transactional pardon archetype perfectly; Biden's previous denial adds political incentive, suggesting fair value exceeds the current ~57c. Eric Adams is severely undervalued at 12.5c; given Trump's repeated defense of him as 'unfairly treated' and hints at a pardon, his value should be 40c+. Matt Gaetz, a core ally, retains potential for a protective pardon despite his AG withdrawal, though his 41.5c price is fully valued. The most critical mispricing remains with Daniel Penny (NY) and Young Thug (GA), who face state-level charges outside presidential jurisdiction; their 'Yes' values should be near zero. Keonne Rodriguez surged on Trump's rhetoric regarding 'privacy developers', but 32c likely overshoots the actual probability, risking a pullback.
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Exotics
This is a typical political betting topic. While pardon predictions are not rare in US politics, the list of options is highly controversial and entertaining (including Joe Exotic, Elon Musk, Himself). It blends serious political power with pop culture/legal gossip, making it more 'exotic' than standard election forecasts but not completely absurd.
Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Bob Menendez's 'Yes' price plunged from 35.5c to 20.5c, a 15c drop. The correction likely stems from the market previously overbidding the 'enemy of my enemy' narrative (Trump saving a Democrat targeted by the DOJ); the lack of concrete signals has led to speculative capital flight.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Keonne Rodriguez's 'Yes' price doubled from 16c to 32c. This surge is likely driven by recent comments from Trump regarding scrutiny of cases involving crypto privacy developers (like the Samourai Wallet founders) or targeted optimism spread by crypto lobbying groups, triggering FOMO.
Divergence
Major divergence exists for Eric Adams and Daniel Penny. Adams is priced extremely low (12.5c), contrasting sharply with mainstream reporting of Trump's vocal support (calling him a victim of persecution), suggesting the market underestimates Trump's willingness to disrupt NY politics. Conversely, the market assigns implied probabilities of 36c to Penny and 30.5c to Young Thug, completely ignoring the legal consensus that presidents cannot pardon state crimes, highlighting a widespread misunderstanding of basic jurisdiction among retail traders.
