[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity for key Senators (e.g., Schumer, Sanders). Combine this with user discussions to assess whether the market price correctly reflects the probability of a full bill passage by March 31 versus the risk of a Continuing Resolution (CR), which resolves to No.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the bid-ask spread and liquidity for key Senators (e.g., Schumer, Sanders). Combine this with user discussions to assess whether the market price correctly reflects the probability of a full bill passage by March 31 versus the risk of a Continuing Resolution (CR), which resolves to No.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search the official U.S. Senate legislative calendar for March 2026 to verify recess dates and floor time before the March 31 deadline. Specifically check if the Majority Leader has scheduled debate for the DHS Appropriations Act, or if news indicates a pivot to a Continuing Resolution (CR) to avert a shutdown (Note: CRs do not qualify for this market).

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search the official U.S. Senate legislative calendar for March 2026 to verify recess dates and floor time before the March 31 deadline. Specifically check if the Majority Leader has scheduled debate for the DHS Appropriations Act, or if news indicates a pivot to a Continuing Resolution (CR) to avert a shutdown (Note: CRs do not qualify for this market).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Rule Pitfall Risk Premium Assessment: Given the rule that a 'Continuing Resolution (CR)' does not qualify, calculate if the current 'Yea' prices are implying an unrealistically high success rate. If historical data shows DHS funding is often extended via CR, analyze whether it is profitable to short Senators who typically vote 'Yea' (e.g., Tim Kaine or Mark Warner) simply because the qualifying vote itself is unlikely to happen.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Rule Pitfall Risk Premium Assessment: Given the rule that a 'Continuing Resolution (CR)' does not qualify, calculate if the current 'Yea' prices are implying an unrealistically high success rate. If historical data shows DHS funding is often extended via CR, analyze whether it is profitable to short Senators who typically vote 'Yea' (e.g., Tim Kaine or Mark Warner) simply because the qualifying vote itself is unlikely to happen.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$10.8k Vol|

12 days 2 hrs

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Tim Kaine

YesNo

44.5¢

55.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+39.5¢

Amy Klobuchar

YesNo

8¢

92¢

30¢

70¢

+22¢

0¢

Chuck Schumer

YesNo

27¢

73¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+22¢

Angus King

YesNo

16.5¢

83.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+11.5¢

Jeanne Shaheen

YesNo

51¢

49¢

40¢

60¢

0¢

+11¢

Rand Paul

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+10.5¢

Chris Murphy

YesNo

50¢

40¢

60¢

0¢

+10¢

Ron Johnson

YesNo

14¢

86¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+9¢

Lisa Murkowski

YesNo

26¢

74¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+6¢

Thom Tillis

YesNo

19¢

81¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+4¢

John Fetterman

YesNo

28.5¢

71.5¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+3.5¢

Rick Scott

YesNo

17.5¢

82.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+2.5¢

Bernie Sanders

YesNo

7.05¢

92.95¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+2¢

Susan Collins

YesNo

18.5¢

81.5¢

20¢

80¢

+1.5¢

0¢

Kirsten Gillibrand

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

0¢

Mark Warner

YesNo

50¢

0¢

Jacky Rosen

YesNo

50¢

0¢

Chris Coons

YesNo

30¢

70¢

0¢

Mike Lee

YesNo

16.5¢

83.5¢

0¢

Maggie Hassan

YesNo

19.5¢

80.5¢

0¢

Patty Murray

YesNo

50¢

0¢

Dick Durbin

YesNo

39.5¢

60.5¢

0¢

Catherine Cortez Masto

YesNo

42¢

58¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.09 23:43 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

While John Fetterman broke ranks to support the GOP on a procedural vote (explaining his price resilience), the market severely underestimates the risk of 'No vote by March 31' or a 'Continuing Resolution (CR)' outcome. Under the rules, a CR resolves to 'No'. Given the failed procedural vote (51-45) on March 5 and the deepening stalemate, the probability of passing a full DHS Appropriations Act in the remaining 21 days is extremely low (estimated <25%). Even if a bill reaches the floor, fiscal hawks like Rand Paul are almost certain to vote 'Nay'. Thus, all 'Yes' fair values are heavily discounted to reflect the systemic risk of a 'No' resolution.

Movers

March 6, 2026 - March 9, 2026, Rick Scott's price crashed from 69c to 33c, Thom Tillis from 58c to 33c, and Tim Kaine from 56c to 35c. The cause was the Senate's failure on March 5 to advance the DHS bill (getting only 51 of the needed 60 votes) and subsequent adjournment until March 9, which collapsed market confidence in passing a full bill by March 31. March 6, 2026 - March 8, 2026, John Fetterman remained resilient (rising slightly from 62c to 64c) because reports indicate he was the sole Democrat to vote with Republicans on the procedural motion, making him the most certain 'Yes' vote IF a vote occurs.

Divergence

Market prices (especially Fetterman at 64c and the average around 30c) imply a 30-60% probability of passing a full Act by March 31. However, mainstream news and the Senate schedule indicate a 'severe stalemate' with a high likelihood of a Continuing Resolution (CR) to end the partial shutdown. Since a CR resolves to 'No', the market pricing is overly optimistic relative to the reality of legislative paralysis.

Who will vote "Yea" on the DHS Appropriations Act, 2026 by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

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