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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
None
YesNo
Carlos Alcaraz
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 21:09 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Alcaraz maintains an undefeated 16-0 record in the 2026 season and has reached the Indian Wells semifinals, achieving a Calendar Grand Slam requires not just form but near-zero margin for error. His ankle injury scare against Rinderknech on March 10 (though minor) highlights the health risks over a long season. Furthermore, Sinner is also in dominant form (reaching the SFs), and the clay season remains unpredictable. Even assigning generous win probabilities of 45%, 55%, and 40% for the French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open respectively, the cumulative probability is only 9.9%. The market's current pricing of 11.25c contains a slight 'invincibility aura' premium; a fair value of around 10c is more rational.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes + Buy No (Long Bucket)
Plan Description:
The current combined price is 99.75 cents (11.25 + 88.5), indicating a tiny theoretical arbitrage space (0.25c). However, this extremely thin margin (0.25%) likely wouldn't cover slippage or capital opportunity costs in practice, making it a negligible opportunity.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 0¢
|Annualized yield: 0.31%
Divergence
Mainstream sports media is currently saturated with narratives about Alcaraz's '16-0 start', being 'unstoppable', and the 'new Big Three era', implying overwhelming dominance. However, the prediction market remains relatively cool (pricing around 11% probability). While this acknowledges his form, it more accurately reflects the statistical difficulty (Cumulative Probability) of winning the remaining three Grand Slams consecutively. The media focuses on 'current form', while the market prices in 'long-term cumulative risk'.
