Sports|$1.2m Vol|
288 days 5 hrsWho will win a women's Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
None
YesNo
Elena Rybakina
YesNo
AI Insights:
8 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Rybakina remaining as the sole option implies she won the 2026 Australian Open, the current price of 1.7c is still a premium over the extremely low probability (<1%) of completing a Calendar Slam. Key resistance factors: 1. **Roland Garros Hurdle**: The upcoming French Open is Rybakina's weakest surface. Given Swiatek's dominance on clay, Rybakina's win probability there is minimal (estimated <10-15%). 2. **Health Concerns**: Rybakina has a history of withdrawals; maintaining the durability required to win four consecutive majors is a massive statistical challenge. Fair value is 1c or lower.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Elena Rybakina' (Yes) @ 1.7c + Buy 'None' (Yes) @ 97.95c
Plan Description:
The sum of the Yes prices is currently 99.65c (1.7 + 97.95), which is below the 100c payout. Since these are mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes (either Rybakina wins the Calendar Slam or she doesn't/None), this theoretically constitutes a risk-free arbitrage. While the profit is only 0.35c per share and the annualized yield is meager, it is a mathematically certain return.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 0¢
|Annualized yield: 0.44%
Exotics
Predicting a Calendar Grand Slam is a common topic in sports, but the probability of occurrence is extremely low (the last women's Calendar Slam was Steffi Graf in 1988). Therefore, while the question itself isn't absurd, it predicts a rare 'black swan' athletic achievement, rating it moderately exotic.
