All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Jonas Sulzbach
YesNo
Ana Paula Renault
YesNo
Babu Santana
YesNo
Chaiany Andrade
YesNo
Milena Moreira
YesNo
Samira Sagr
YesNo
Marciele Albuquerque
YesNo
Alberto Pimentel
YesNo
Jordana Morais
YesNo
Juliano Floss
YesNo
Breno Corã
YesNo
Sarah Andrade
YesNo
Matheus Moreira
YesNo
Edílson Capetinha
YesNo
Aline Campos
YesNo
Solange Couto
YesNo
Maxiane Rodrigues
YesNo
Marcelo Alves
YesNo
Sol Vega
YesNo
Gabriela Saporito
YesNo
Brigido Neto
YesNo
Paulo Augusto Carvalhaes
YesNo
Leandro Rocha
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 17:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While Ana Paula Renault (67.5c) remains the nominal frontrunner, the market is displaying significant lag. Given polls from March 9 showing Jonas Sulzbach (17c) surging and potentially overtaking her, combined with his price tripling in the last 3 days (5.5c to 17c), the momentum is entirely with Jonas. Ana Paula's premium is largely due to the 'anchoring' effect of her early-season dominance. However, as the finale approaches, opposition votes typically consolidate around a single challenger, which appears to be Jonas. We adjust Ana Paula's fair value down to 55c and aggressively upgrade Jonas to 30c to reflect his true win equity. Chaiany is held at 10c as the third-place dark horse. Alberto Pimentel's slight rise to 2.5c is likely due to 'Repechage' rumors or hedging rather than a genuine return of win equity; his true value remains near 0.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Top 3 Bundle (Ana Paula + Jonas + Chaiany)
Plan Description:
There is a significant 'overpriced long tail' inefficiency in the market. The sum of the Yes prices for the top contenders (Ana Paula, Jonas, Chaiany) is approximately 93.55c (67.5 + 17.05 + 9.0). By purchasing Yes contracts for all three, creating a 'Top 3 Bundle', your cost is 93.55c. As long as the winner comes from this trio, you receive 100c, netting a 6.45c profit. Given that the remaining 'long tail' options (like Milena, Alberto) are largely marginalized or effectively eliminated (Alberto previously crashed), the probability of 'someone else winning' is extremely low. This represents a low-risk trade with an annualized yield of ~58%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 6¢
|Annualized yield: 58%
Exotics
This is a prediction specific to a country (Brazil) and an entertainment show (Big Brother). While not entirely obscure given the show's massive popularity and viewership, it qualifies as a pop-culture niche market rather than a standard financial or political event.
Movers
Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, Jonas Sulzbach's price surged from 5.55c to 17.05c, as anti-Ana Paula votes began to consolidate nearing the finale, and polling data indicated a sharp rise in his competitiveness, forcing the market to correct his previous undervaluation.
Mar 3, 2026 - Mar 10, 2026, Alberto Pimentel's price crashed from 5.25c to 0.55c, and Breno Corã spiked then collapsed to 0.5c, due to elimination results confirming their exit or loss of viability.
Feb 27, 2026 - Feb 28, 2026, Jonas Sulzbach's price rebounded quickly from 4c to 9.2c as he established himself as the only viable male contender.
Feb 15, 2026 - Feb 21, 2026, Milena Moreira's price collapsed from 13.5c to 7.2c, indicating the collapse of her tier-1 status.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Although Jonas Sulzbach's price has started to rise (to 17%), the market pricing remains extremely conservative relative to the 'head-to-head or even overtaking' scenario implied by media reports and polls from March 9. The market odds currently imply Ana Paula (67.5%) is nearly 4 times more likely to win than Jonas, which is disconnected from the external sentiment of a 'surge' in Jonas's support. This suggests strong 'Anchoring Bias' among market participants, failing to fully price in the recent regime shift.
