Politics|$93.9k Vol|
89 days 6 hrsWho will win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Kenyan McDuffie
YesNo
Christina Henderson
YesNo
Gary Goodweather
YesNo
Muriel Bowser
YesNo
Karl Racine
YesNo
Brian Schwalb
YesNo
Brianne K. Nadeau
YesNo
Phil Mendelson
YesNo
Zachary Parker
YesNo
Janeese Lewis George
YesNo
Brooke Pinto
YesNo
Robert White Jr.
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 07:36 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Despite the severe volatility on March 14, the market structure remains firmly anchored in a duopoly between Kenyan McDuffie (Establishment/Business) and Janeese Lewis George (Progressive core). Their combined price is currently ~88c, which is still below their combined win probability (likely near 97%). Given Bowser's non-candidacy (per context), McDuffie is the natural heir to the establishment vote and warrants a slight premium at 52c, while JLG remains the sole viable progressive challenger at 45c. The remaining long-tail options (Bowser, Pinto, etc.) still command a ~12c premium, representing typical longshot bias; their fair value should be near zero.
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Movers
March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie's price crashed from 47.5c to 30.5c before quickly rebounding to 49.5c; Janeese Lewis George saw a mirrored move (40.5c -> 51.5c -> 38.5c). This sharp V-shaped reversal within a short window likely resulted from a single large market order wiping out the order book or a misinterpretation of a specific poll, after which the market quickly corrected the mispricing back to a competitive equilibrium.
Feb 25, 2026 - Feb 26, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie experienced a similar flash crash (68c to 51c), indicating that this market possesses fragile liquidity and is susceptible to shocks from significant capital flows.
