All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Sam Raskin
YesNo
Julian Sahasrabudhe
YesNo
Aleksandr Logunov
YesNo
Yu Deng
YesNo
Jack Thorne
YesNo
Hong Wang
YesNo
Will Sawin
YesNo
Jacob Tsimerman
YesNo
John Pardon
YesNo
Alexander Efimov
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 19:15 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The total implied market probability is approximately 375%, sitting comfortably within the expected range for 3-4 winners (theoretical cap 400%). Hong Wang is priced as a near-certainty (80c) driven by her solution to the 3D Kakeya conjecture and recent Salem/ICCM Gold awards; while crowded, the fundamentals support a high valuation. We view Jack Thorne (40c) as undervalued; his work on the arithmetic Langlands program consistently places him in 'top 3' discussions, and he should theoretically trade above Yu Deng. Yu Deng (48c) appears slightly overpriced due to recent hype. Julian Sahasrabudhe (26.5c) is a strong value play; his recent string of awards (Whitehead, MCA) and ICM speaker slot mimic a classic Fields Medal trajectory. Will Sawin's extreme volatility reflects uncertainty about his timing (2026 vs 2030); given the stiff competition, we peg his fair value closer to 20c.
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Exotics
For academia and mathematics enthusiasts, this is a highly anticipated and regular topic. However, for the general public, the Fields Medal is relatively niche, and predicting it requires a very high threshold of specialized knowledge (understanding frontier mathematical contributions), placing it in the medium novelty range.
Movers
March 10 - March 13, 2026, Will Sawin experienced a massive crash, plummeting from a peak of 33.5c on March 10 back to 15.5c, effectively erasing recent gains. This extreme volatility suggests a collapse in confidence regarding his 2026 chances or the exit of speculative capital. Concurrently, Yu Deng corrected from 57.5c to 46.5c, and Aleksandr Logunov dropped from 22.5c to 12.5c (before a minor recovery), indicating a broad market correction following early-month exuberance.
March 5, 2026, Julian Sahasrabudhe and Yu Deng experienced an explosive surge (to 56.5c and 71c respectively), likely triggered by high-credibility predictions, but current price action shows the market retracing from those highs.
Divergence
The primary divergence lies in the pricing of Jack Thorne. While frequently cited in academic circles and forums as a top-tier contender alongside Jacob Tsimerman (Top 3 status), he trades significantly lower (40c) than Yu Deng (48c) in the prediction market. This suggests the market may be chasing the momentum of 'rising stars' with recent news cycles (like Deng and Wang) while undervaluing established heavyweights like Thorne. Additionally, the extreme volatility in Will Sawin's price (doubling or halving in a day) contrasts sharply with the stability of his academic standing.
