All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31, 2026
YesNo
September 30, 2026
YesNo
June 30, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 16:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the established context that Arc was acquired by Atlassian in late 2025, launching a separate governance token is structurally implausible. Within a public company ecosystem, equity is the sole governance instrument. The 55c price on the December contract is a speculative bubble completely detached from fundamentals, ignoring the acquisition reality. Fair value should revert to near zero.
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Exotics
Arc is a highly visible new browser project, and speculation about a potential token launch is a moderate topic within the crypto and tech communities. It's not a mainstream question like an election, nor is it extremely obscure; it's a niche but hot topic.
Movers
March 11, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the 'June 30, 2026' option experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 23.5c to 7.5c, then rebounding to 26.5c the next day. The reason is likely extreme liquidity drying up in this intermediate tenor, where small flows caused chaotic price jumps, reflecting a lack of consensus on the medium-term token probability.
February 22, 2026 - February 25, 2026, the 'June 30, 2026' option crashed from 54c to 34.5c, while the 'December 31, 2026' option surged from 41.5c to 56.5c. The reason is likely a market correction of the previous term structure inversion (where June was > Sept), causing the crash in June; simultaneously, capital rotated into the December contract for long-dated speculation, driving a paradoxical rally despite the lack of fundamental news.
February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price of the 'June 30, 2026' option surged from 45.5c to 56c. The reason is likely a severe pricing error or liquidity squeeze, causing June prices to irrationally exceed September prices, creating an arbitrage window.
Divergence
A severe divergence exists between market pricing and reality. Realistically, Arc's acquisition by Atlassian closes the token launch pathway. Yet, the prediction market implies a 55% chance by year-end, suggesting participants are either lagging on the acquisition news or gambling on a highly unlikely 'points-to-token' edge case.
