All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↓ $40,250
YesNo
↓ $40,000
YesNo
↓ $40,500
YesNo
↑ $44,000
YesNo
↓ $39,000
YesNo
↑ $41,500
YesNo
↓ $40,750
YesNo
↑ $43,000
YesNo
↑ $41,750
YesNo
↓ $41,000
YesNo
↑ $42,500
YesNo
↑ $42,000
YesNo
↑ $42,250
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 14:53 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on Subdial data, the AP Index in March 2026 is ~£30,666 (approx. $41,400 USD) with a positive trend of +1.8%. The current price is just below $41,500. Given 43 days to expiry and the bullish momentum, the probability of touching $41,500 or $41,750 is very high, while dropping below $40,000 (requiring a 3.4% decline) is highly unlikely. All options are mispriced at 50 cents.
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Rule Risk
There is a significant potential rule conflict. The rule text explicitly states resolution to 'Yes' if the price is 'equal to or above' the listed price, which fits the '↑' (up) options. However, the options list includes '↓' (down) options, which typically imply 'equal to or below'. If the provided rule text applies globally, the logic for the '↓' options is flawed. Additionally, the data source may default to GBP, requiring a manual toggle to USD.
Exotics
This market involves forecasting the price index of an alternative asset (luxury watches). While Audemars Piguet is a well-known brand, trading on an index constructed from its secondary market prices represents a relatively niche financial segment (Alternative Assets).
Divergence
Market pricing shows total randomness (all 50%), while actual Subdial data places the AP price near $41,400 with an upward trend. Mainstream data supports a bullish case for $41,500/$41,750, which the market fails to reflect.
