Betting on the specific daily high temperature of a single city is a niche, novelty market typically used for daily platform engagement rather than serious, macro-level forecasting.

Between May 9 and May 10, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 25.5c to 43.5c before settling at 32c, while the 24°C option dropped from 20c to 10.5c. This occurred because updated short-term weather models narrowed the forecast range, reducing the likelihood of higher temperatures (24°C and above) and causing capital to concentrate on the 22°C and 23°C options.

May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of the '25°C or higher' option surged from 46c to 81.5c, as real-time morning temperatures on the resolution day climbed rapidly, confirming the high-temperature forecast. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the '25°C or higher' option surged from 12.5c to 46c, while the '23°C' option dropped from 36c to 18.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated meteorological forecasting models revised the expected maximum temperature for Haneda Airport upward, indicating a high likelihood of reaching or exceeding 25°C.

May 8, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of Apex surged from 46.5c to 95.5c, while Remarkably Bright Creatures collapsed from 47.5c to 3.4c, and Swapped dropped from 25.5c to 0.1c. This was driven by late-week viewership data solidifying Apex as the definitive #2 global movie, effectively eliminating its competitors. May 8, 2026, the price of Apex dropped from 50c to 41.5c before rebounding to 45c, while Remarkably Bright Creatures surged from 35.5c to 47.5c. This was driven by pre-weekend viewership data updates showing strong growth for Remarkably Bright Creatures, allowing it to overtake the previously leading Apex. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of Remarkably Bright Creatures rose from 26.5c to 36c, driven by strong mid-week streaming performance that positioned it as a solid contender for the #2 global spot. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, multiple options including Bugonia, Black Phone 2, Ladies First, Gladiator II, Roommates, Green Book, and The Silent Twins plummeted from around 24c-26c to below 12c (some dropping below 4c). This was due to the solidification of viewership data as the week progressed, effectively eliminating them from the global Top 2 contention.

Predicting the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche but standard weather market. For the general public, it is not a daily concern unless they have a specific interest, but it is not completely bizarre.

On May 10, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 14c to 27.5c, while 22°C dropped from 39c to 21c briefly before recovering, and 23°C fell from 33.5c to 23c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated meteorological models slightly adjusted the expected temperature downwards, reducing the likelihood of higher temperatures. On May 9, 2026, the price of the 19°C option plummeted from 12.5c to 1.5c, the 24°C option fell from 18.5c to 7c, and the 25°C option dropped from 13.5c to 1.2c. This was due to increased forecast accuracy ruling out these extreme temperature scenarios.

Between 11:23 and 12:28 on May 10, 2026, the Yes price for 15°C surged from 4.5c to 19c, while the price for 19°C plummeted from 19c to 2.65c. This was primarily driven by fine-tuned weather forecasts as the resolution date approaches, causing the market to price out higher nighttime lows and shift towards cooler temperature ranges. No prior severe fluctuations over 10c were recorded.