All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
June 30, 2026
YesNo
September 30, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
December 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.09 20:50 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 9, 2026, with only 3 weeks left in Q1 and no official TGE date announcement, the fair value for the March 31 option has plummeted to 5c. Market expectations have shifted to Q2. Given GRVT's prolonged Mainnet Alpha status and sufficient funding, June 30 (Q2) is the most logical launch window, valued at 80c. Following the logic of cumulative probability, fair values for later dates must be strictly higher than or equal to earlier ones; thus, December 31 should be valued above 90c, making its current market price of 73c significantly undervalued.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
From Mar 6, 2026 to Mar 9, 2026, the price of the 'December 31, 2026' option crashed from 93.5c to 73c. The reason is likely panic selling driven by liquidity crunch or irrational trading, as the June and September prices remained strong (>80c) during the same period, creating an anomalous inversion where the far-dated option is cheaper than near-dated ones.
From Feb 9, 2026 to Feb 10, 2026, the price of the 'March 31, 2026' option rose from 29.5c to 39.5c. The reason was a market repricing of the Q1 TGE probability, driven by speculation around the upcoming Feb 20 product update.
Divergence
The main divergence lies in the chaotic internal logic of market pricing. While the consensus (and June/Sept option prices) strongly agrees the token will launch in 2026 (probability >80%), the crash of the December option (to 73%) implies irrational capital flight or pricing of an extreme tail risk that the project might fail before year-end, which starkly contradicts the high expectations for Q2.
