All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31, 2026
YesNo
June 30, 2026
YesNo
September 30, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.04 16:09 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current date is March 4, 2026. Although Hibachi's points program ended in Sep 2025 (>5 months ago), this typically signals an approaching TGE window. The key catalyst is the new Forex product announced in Feb 2026. Projects usually launch tokens within 1-4 months of a major product release to incentivize liquidity, making Q2 (June 30) and Q3 (Sep 30) the highest probability windows. For the 'March 31' option, with only 27 days remaining and no specific TGE announcement (which usually requires 3-4 weeks lead time), the probability is negligible, placing its fair value near zero. The recent volatility in the 'Dec 31' option suggests fragile but recovering market confidence; however, given the new product shipment, a launch within the year remains highly probable.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No March 31, 2026' (Low Risk Yield)
Plan Description:
The current price for 'No March 31' is 98.1 cents. With only 27 days until expiration and no official token announcement from Hibachi (which typically requires a 2-4 week lead time), a surprise token launch before the end of March is extremely unlikely. This represents a high-probability, low-risk yield opportunity with an annualized return of approximately 26%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 26.1%
Exotics
Hibachi is a specific crypto project (likely niche DeFi or infrastructure), making this a standard topic for crypto-natives but obscure for the general public. 'When TGE' markets are very common within Web3 prediction markets.
Movers
March 3, 2026 - March 4, 2026, the price of the 'June 30, 2026' option surged from 13c to 26.5c, likely because the market reassessed the catalyst effect of the February Forex product announcement on a Q2 launch, or corrected a previous oversold condition.
March 1, 2026 - March 4, 2026, the price of the 'December 31, 2026' option surged from 31.5c to 62c, as the option experienced an irrational liquidity crash on March 1 (plummeting to 31.5c), followed by a rapid recovery to normal levels over the subsequent days as rationality returned and buyers stepped in.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Fundamental analysis suggests a high probability of a token launch in Q2 or Q3 2026 (FV > 45c) following the Feb 2026 product release and the conclusion of the points program in Sep 2025. However, the prediction market prices 'June 30' at only 26.5c, indicating excessive pessimism regarding execution or regulation, failing to fully price in the incentives created by the new product launch.
