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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 15:09 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on scientific empiricism and secular rationality, the objective probability of this event occurring is effectively zero, rendering the intrinsic value of Option 'Yes' to be 0. Financially, Option 'No' functions as a zero-coupon bond maturing on Dec 31, 2026. As of March 17, 2026, with ~288 days (0.79 years) remaining and assuming a 4.0% risk-free rate, the fair present value (PV) is approximately $1.00 / (1.04)^0.79 ≈ $0.97. The current price of Option 'No' at 96.15 cents is slightly below fair value, with the 0.85-cent spread reflecting the opportunity cost of capital and liquidity premiums in prediction markets.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Option 'No'
Plan Description:
While no direct arbitrage exists (Yes+No=100), buying 'No' represents a very low-risk fixed-income style investment. Purchasing at 96.15c for a guaranteed 100c payout at maturity (in ~288 days) yields an annualized return of approximately 5.1%. Given the extreme improbability of the event, this effectively functions as a short-term discount bond with a competitive yield.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 3¢
|Annualized yield: 5.1%
Rule Risk
While the literal rule is clear, the core risk lies in the 'consensus of credible sources' criterion. For a supernatural event like the 'Second Coming', it is highly unlikely that the scientific community, mainstream media, and religious groups will reach a consensus, leading to high potential for resolution disputes or ambiguity.
Exotics
This is a quintessential exotic market. It involves religious prophecy and eschatology, completely falling outside standard political, economic, or sports forecasting, representing an extreme niche and speculative topic.
Hedging
Gold
Bitcoin
S&P 500
If this event were actually confirmed to occur (resolving Yes), it would imply a fundamental restructuring of the world order or an apocalyptic scenario. All financial asset valuation models would instantly become obsolete, leading to extreme market panic and structural collapse. While the probability is infinitesimal, the potential impact is infinite (Extreme).
Divergence
The market pricing implies a ~3.9% probability of the 'Second Coming', which significantly diverges from the effectively 0% expectation held by mainstream science and secular society. This price does not reflect a genuine probability estimate but is rather a financial phenomenon supported by the opportunity cost of capital (locking funds in 'No') and minimal 'lottery-ticket' speculative demand.
