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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 20
YesNo
March 23
YesNo
March 22
YesNo
March 21
YesNo
March 18
YesNo
March 19
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With tweets on March 16 and 17 confirming the active status of the Supreme Leader's social accounts, the market has completely shaken off previous concerns about 'silence due to health issues.' We are currently in the most important Nowruz (Persian New Year) celebration week. March 18 lies within the active window, and March 20, being the actual day of Nowruz, is a politically and culturally mandatory moment for addressing the nation, with almost zero probability of absence. Given that festival celebrations typically involve pre-holiday speeches (19th), main day celebrations (20th), and subsequent holiday interactions, the probability of tweets throughout this cycle should remain extremely high. Current market prices, while having risen significantly, are still slightly below fair value for the core dates (especially the 20th).
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Exotics
This is a market about the social media activity of a specific political figure. While Khamenei's tweets are geopolitically relevant, betting on whether he tweets on a 'specific day' is a niche micro-event, distinct from macro events like elections or war outbreaks, carrying some novelty and randomness.
Movers
March 15, 2026 - March 18, 2026, prices for all date options (March 18 to 23) skyrocketed across the board. Notably, the core holiday date March 20 surged from 46c to 84c, March 19 from 46c to 82c, and March 21 from 41c to 79c. This drastic movement was driven by two factors: First, the official account broke a long period of silence with consecutive tweets on March 16 and 17, directly shattering rumors of account cessation or deteriorating health. Second, with Nowruz approaching, the market rapidly switched its pricing logic from 'uncertainty' to 'high-frequency holiday activity mode,' causing a massive influx of buy volume in a short period.
