May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of 21°C climbed from 13.5c to 30c, 22°C surged from 21c to 43c, while 23°C dropped from 30c to 16c. This occurred because as the date approached, weather forecast data became more precise, adjusting the expected high temperatures down from around 73°F to the 70°F-71°F range, thereby significantly increasing the probabilities for 21°C and 22°C.

While weather is a standard prediction market topic, the general public outside the local area would rarely try to predict the exact high temperature in Chengdu on a specific date before seeing this market, giving it moderate novelty.

Between May 7 and May 8, 2026, the Yes price for 27°C dropped from 29.5c to 15c, the Yes price for 28°C fluctuated between 21c and 31.5c, and the Yes price for 26°C fell from 19.5c to 8c before rebounding to 14.5c. This is due to weather forecast models continuously updating as the resolution date approaches, narrowing the expected temperature to the 28°C-29°C range.

The strict definition of a 'meeting' requiring direct personal interaction (handshake, exchange of words) rather than mere proximity poses a resolution risk. Ambiguous photo ops at multilateral summits might cause disputes if actual interaction isn't clearly reported.

May 5, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 35.5c to around 1.1c. The reason is that during Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to China on May 6, he was not granted a courtesy meeting with Xi Jinping as expected, but only held bilateral talks with FM Wang Yi, shattering expectations for the event's occurrence.

While weather prediction is a known niche in prediction markets, guessing the exact high temperature of a specific city on a random day is quite obscure and not something the general public naturally thinks about.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 21c to a peak of 42c, and the 24°C option rose from 20.5c to 38c. This was driven by weather models converging highly on the 23-24°C range as the target date approached. May 7, 2026, the 27°C or higher option plummeted from 25.5c to 2.2c, as updated forecasts eliminated the tail risk of an extreme unseasonal heatwave.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the 64-65°F option surged from 19.5c to 44.5c, while the '68°F or higher' option retreated to 19c after briefly hitting 38c. This was driven by converging meteorological models indicating that the peak of the weekend heat wave will arrive after Sunday, making May 9 a transitional warming day and solidifying the probability of a 64-65°F high.