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Outcomes
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AI Fair
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Value
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116 billion
YesNo
118 billion
YesNo
117 billion
YesNo
115 billion
YesNo
120 billion
YesNo
119 billion
YesNo
125 billion
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 23:47 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 17, MrBeast's total views are estimated at ~114.8B (based on 114.47B on Mar 13 + daily growth). 13 days remain.
1. **115B (Guaranteed)**: Only ~0.2B needed. At the current pace of ~100M/day, this will be hit within ~2 days (around Mar 19). Essentially risk-free.
2. **116B (The Battleground)**: ~1.2B needed, requiring a daily average of 92.3M. The trailing 7-day average is ~95.3M (ranging from 65M to 136M). The Current Run Rate slightly exceeds the Required Rate. Barring consecutive low-performance days (<80M), 'Yes' is the statistically favored outcome. Fair value is 55c-60c, slightly above market price.
3. **117B+ (Unlikely)**: Requires >169M/day, statistically impossible without a massive viral anomaly.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy '115 billion' Yes
Plan Description:
The '115 billion' Yes contract is trading at 98.9c. With current views at ~114.8B and a pace of ~100M/day, this target will be crossed within 48 hours. This offers a 1.1% absolute return over a maximum of 13 days (likely settling much sooner), translating to an annualized yield of ~31% with virtually zero risk.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 31.2%
Movers
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, the price for '116 billion' surged from 28c to 52.5c due to a V-shaped data recovery. After panic selling drove the price down following a slump on Mar 12 (only 65M views), strong data on Mar 14 (136M) and Mar 16 (91.5M) confirmed the daily average remains above the required baseline (92M/day), restoring market confidence.
Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, the price for '116 billion' drifted down from 47.5c to a low of 28c, driven by anxiety over the Mar 12 data point (65.8M views), which was significantly below the run rate needed to hit the target.
