[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book depth and bid-ask spreads for the MrBeast subscriber options (e.g., 480M, 490M) on Polymarket, and combine with current market sentiment to update the fair value projection and capital lock-up risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book depth and bid-ask spreads for the MrBeast subscriber options (e.g., 480M, 490M) on Polymarket, and combine with current market sentiment to update the fair value projection and capital lock-up risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core Data Source Verification: Use SocialBlade or Youtubers.me to query MrBeast's daily average subscriber growth over the past 30 days, and use linear extrapolation to calculate the mathematical probability of hitting key milestones like 480M or 490M by March 31.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core Data Source Verification: Use SocialBlade or Youtubers.me to query MrBeast's daily average subscriber growth over the past 30 days, and use linear extrapolation to calculate the mathematical probability of hitting key milestones like 480M or 490M by March 31.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Track MrBeast's latest teasers on Twitter/X or Instagram to analyze if a major "viral-tier" video release is scheduled for March, and assess its potential as a volatility catalyst to cause a pulse spike in subscriber growth rates.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Track MrBeast's latest teasers on Twitter/X or Instagram to analyze if a major "viral-tier" video release is scheduled for March, and assess its potential as a volatility catalyst to cause a pulse spike in subscriber growth rates.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Culture|$460.1k Vol|

12 days 5 hrs

Will MrBeast hit ___ Million subscribers by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

474 Million

YesNo

44¢

56¢

30¢

70¢

0¢

+14¢

475 Million

YesNo

12.5¢

87.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+7.5¢

480 Million

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

472 Million

YesNo

99.85¢

0.15¢

99¢

1¢

0¢

+0.9¢

490 Million

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

477 Million

YesNo

1.45¢

98.55¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.4¢

500 Million

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

AI Insights:

17 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

As of March 18, 2026, with ~13 days remaining, MrBeast's subscriber count is estimated at ~471.5M-471.6M. Hitting 474M requires averaging ~195k-200k new subscribers daily for the rest of the month. While a spike on Mar 12-13 briefly made this plausible, the subsequent price cooling suggests growth has reverted closer to the 140k-150k baseline. A linear projection at baseline rates lands the final count around 473.3M-473.5M. Thus, 472M is effectively locked (Fair Value ~99c). The 474M option, currently trading at 39c, remains slightly overvalued (Fair Value ~30c) given the high difficulty of sustaining the required run rate. Options 475M and above require >260k/day, which is statistically improbable without a massive viral anomaly.

Sign up to view more information

Will MrBeast hit ___ Million subscribers by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner