Sports|$26.3k Vol|
66 days 5 hrsWill Rayan Cherki break the Premier League assists record? - AI Odds Analysis
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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 12:02 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 16, 2026, Manchester City has played 30 Premier League matches, leaving only 8 games remaining. Official stats place Rayan Cherki at approximately 8-9 assists (sources vary slightly, but all confirm single digits). To break the record of 20 assists held by Henry and De Bruyne, Cherki needs at least 12 assists in the final 8 games, a rate of 1.5 per game. This is statistically impossible. In contrast, Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd) sits at ~16 assists and is the actual contender. Cherki has effectively been out of the race for months; the fair value of 'Yes' is 0.
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Divergence
Extreme pricing inefficiency exists. While the statistical probability of Cherki breaking the record is 0% (requiring 1.5 assists/game in the last 8 matches), the market implies a 2.5% chance. The true divergence is contextual: media attention is focused on Bruno Fernandes (16 assists) as the actual record chaser, while 'zombie capital' remains stuck on Cherki in the prediction market, preventing the price from hitting zero.
