All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↓ $12,050
YesNo
↑ $12,250
YesNo
↓ $12,100
YesNo
↓ $11,950
YesNo
↓ $11,850
YesNo
↑ $13,150
YesNo
↓ $11,750
YesNo
↑ $12,450
YesNo
↑ $12,350
YesNo
↑ $12,300
YesNo
↑ $12,550
YesNo
↑ $12,650
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 03:03 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on historical data from Subdial and Bloomberg and market trend reports for 2025-2026, Rolex secondary market prices are in a stabilization phase following a correction (hovering around the $12,000-$12,500 range), with a slight bearish or flat bias. The current market pricing of ~50% across all strikes (from $11,750 to $13,150) indicates extreme illiquidity or market inefficiency. Given the low volatility and lack of bullish catalysts, deep out-of-the-money (OTM) 'Up' options (e.g., $13,150) are highly unlikely to hit and should be valued near zero, while near-the-money 'Down' options (e.g., $12,100) have higher value due to the prevailing trend.
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Divergence
Significant divergence. The prediction market exhibits undifferentiated, random pricing (all outcomes ~50%), whereas mainstream market reports (Bloomberg/Subdial) indicate clear price tiers and a low-volatility trend. The market prices fail to reflect the probability gradient across different strike prices.
