All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
April 30
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 19:48 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest battlefield intelligence from early March 2026 (ISW and DeepState), Ukrainian forces have launched successful counterattacks in the western Zaporizhzhia sector, specifically near Prymorske. Reports explicitly state that Ukrainian forces have forced Russian small groups to retreat from northern and central Prymorske, and the Russian offensive in this direction is described as 'virtually halted'. For the 'March 31' option, given only 18 days remaining and Russian forces currently retreating, it is virtually impossible for them to reverse momentum and achieve 'complete capture' (full ISW red shading) in such a short window. For the 'April 30' option, despite the longer timeframe, the disruption of Russia's spring offensive plans and their current defensive posture suggests the market price of 12.5c significantly overestimates their ability to regroup and seize the settlement. Fair value should revert to a very low level, reflecting the actual 'retreat/stalemate' status.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' on 'March 31' option (Current price ~95.1c)
Plan Description:
Since Russian forces are confirmed to be retreating and on the defensive in Prymorske, and with only 18 days left until the March 31 settlement, the probability of a 'complete capture' is extremely low (near zero). The current price for 'No' is 95.1c, implying a profit of ~4.9c (approx. 5.15% absolute return) in less than 3 weeks, translating to an annualized yield of over 100%. This represents a high-yield opportunity with very minimal risk.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 4¢
|Annualized yield: 104.4%
Rule Risk
Critical rule risk exists. The current date (Feb 2026) is past the deadline explicitly stated in the rule text (Jan 15, 2026), yet the options (March 31) and remaining time (48 days) indicate an active market. This direct contradiction between the rule description (Jan 15) and the contract parameters (March 31) creates high dispute potential. Additionally, the 'Entirety' requirement is strict, where tiny unshaded slivers on the ISW map can prevent a 'Yes' resolution.
Exotics
Niche geopolitical forecasting. While the Russia-Ukraine war is broadly followed, predicting the specific capture timeline of a small municipality (Prymorske) is a granular, specialized topic, distinct from mainstream general knowledge markets.
Movers
March 9, 2026 - March 11, 2026, the price for the April 30 option plummeted from 24c to 11.5c, as new battlefield reports (e.g., ISW and Mashovets) confirmed successful Ukrainian counterattacks in Prymorske and the forced retreat of Russian troops, effectively debunking previous market rumors of a Russian breakthrough.
March 1, 2026 - March 3, 2026, the price for the April 30 option surged from 14c to 34.5c, likely driven by unverified rumors of frontline breakthroughs, leading to a speculative overheat.
February 21, 2026 - February 22, 2026, the price for the April 30 option dropped from 24.5c to 15c, as the market initially absorbed intel regarding failed Russian infiltration and effective Ukrainian counterattacks.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Although mainstream media and authoritative think tanks (ISW) explicitly state that Russian forces have faced setbacks, are 'halted', or are even 'retreating' in Prymorske, the market (specifically the April 30 option) maintains a price around 12.5c. This suggests market participants are either lagging in their reaction or holding onto irrational tail-risk hedges regarding a 'sudden massive Russian resurgence', resulting in a price that is inflated relative to the fundamental reality that Russia is losing ground.
