Will Russia capture Prymorske by...?
Geopolitics|$140 Vol|
time242 days 3 hrs

Will Russia capture Prymorske by...? - AI Found +24¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 11:44
Top Undervalued
+24¢
December 31(Yes)
+6.5¢
September 30(Yes)
+1.5¢
June 30(Yes)

Will Russia capture Prymorske by...? AI analysis: • +24¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
No specific context data is provided, and the current time is May 2026. The three options represent ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Who will Trump meet with in May?
Geopolitics|$14.0k Vol|
time28 days 3 hrs

Who will Trump meet with in May?

Top Undervalued
+45.5¢
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva(Yes)
+41¢
Giorgia Meloni(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices reflect expectations for Donald Trump's potential meeting counterparts in May ...
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Rule Risk
The rule explicitly defines a meeting as 'any encounter where both... interact... in person,' which differs from standard formal diplomatic or business meetings. A brief handshake or pleasantries at a large summit could trigger a 'Yes' and cause resolution disputes.
AI Analysis
What exactly qualifies as an 'in-person meeting' between Trump and the listed individuals, and how will the consensus of credible reporting be determined for market resolution?
Highest temperature in London on May 4?
Weather|$14.2k Vol|
time1 days 15 hrs

Highest temperature in London on May 4?

Top Undervalued
+17.5¢
18°C(No)
+16.5¢
16°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in London on May 4, 2026, is expected to...
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Exotics
Forecasting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common novelty topic in prediction markets. While not as mainstream as political elections or sports, it is not extremely bizarre because participants can rely on mature meteorological models.
Divergence
The market currently favors 18°C (30.5c), whereas mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., The Weather Channel and Met Office) project a high of around 16°C to 17°C for May 4. This indicates a divergence between market pricing and the latest meteorological data, likely due to market participants not updating their models with the most recent forecasts.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this London weather market in simple terms, specifically detailing how the Wunderground London City Airport (EGLC) data and the rounding to whole degrees Celsius will determine the winning temperature range.
2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner
Politics|$174.6k Vol|
time4 days 3 hrs

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner

Top Undervalued
+95.9¢
Reform(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
95¢
Arbitrage
200000%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Heavily buy No shares on Reform (currently costing only 4.2 cents). Plan Description: It is practically impossible for Reform to win the most council seats in UK local elections based on...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
In UK local elections, Labour and the Conservatives possess extensive grassroots networks and candid...
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Movers
May 1, 2026, Reform's price plummeted from 97.75c to 82.2c before rebounding to 97.15c. This was likely due to a large trader attempting to short and correct the severe overvaluation, before speculative capital pushed the price back up. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, prices for all options remained stable with no movements exceeding 10 cents. Reform's price continued to fluctuate at extremely high levels (94c to 97.75c).
Divergence
There is a massive divergence between market pricing and mainstream political consensus. The market assigns a 95% probability to Reform winning the most local council seats, whereas mainstream media, election experts, and historical data show that Labour and the Conservatives are the only serious contenders for local election dominance. Reform barely has the capacity to field enough candidates, let alone win the most seats. This extreme mismatch is purely driven by irrational speculative capital.
AI Analysis
Compare the latest UK political polling data from sources like YouGov or Britain Elects with the current Polymarket odds for Labour, Conservatives, and Lib Dems winning the most council seats.
Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?
Politics|$79.5k Vol|
time4 days 3 hrs

Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?

Top Undervalued
+15.5¢
Green(No)
+15.5¢
Labour(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Labour thoroughly dominates London local politics. In the 2022 London borough council elections, Lab...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly state that in the event of a tie, the market resolves to the party first in alphabetical order (e.g., Conservative beats Labour), which is a subtle trap. Additionally, control requires strictly more than 50% of voting councillors—coalitions and independent candidates are excluded, and executive roles like Mayor do not count. This strict definition could lead to a resolution that differs from media headlines.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence in market pricing. The Green Party currently has an implied probability of 15.5%, while Labour is at 82.5%. In reality, it is highly unrealistic for the Greens to win 'control of the most London boroughs' as it would require securing absolute majorities across dozens of wards. Mainstream consensus and historical data strongly favor Labour winning the most councils by a landslide. This pricing likely reflects irrational speculative hype on a tail-risk event.
AI Analysis
Explain like I'm 5 (ELI5): What are the exact resolution rules and criteria for 'controlling the most London borough councils' in the 2026 local elections?
Will the next elected US president be a woman?
Politics|$11.3k Vol|
time919 days 3 hrs

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of late April 2026, the potential candidate landscape for the 2028 election remains largely uncha...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the low total volume of ~$9,300 and the extremely long duration (until 2028), analyze the current bid-ask spread and order depth. Do the current odds reasonably reflect the fundamentals of potential female candidates like Kamala Harris or Gretchen Whitmer? Is there mispricing due to liquidity illiquidity?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
December 31
YesNo
26¢
74¢
50¢
50¢
+24¢
0¢
September 30
YesNo
28.5¢
71.5¢
35¢
65¢
+6.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The rules are highly specific regarding the definition of capture, relying on exact ISW map shading colors (red) and types (excluding infiltration areas), and requiring the status to persist through the next update. Furthermore, negotiated settlements qualify only if actual control is established. This strict reliance on specific map updates and persistence times could lead to disputes if the map shows temporary or ambiguous markings, and it depends heavily on third-party sources (ISW and DeepStateMap).

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