All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
April 30
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 04:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 13, 2026, only 18 days remain until March 31 and 48 days until April 30. Recent data from ISW and DeepState indicates a tactical stagnation in the Borova direction (approx. 7-8km away), with no confirmed territorial gains in early March. 'Rasputitsa' (mud season) conditions in the Kharkiv region severely restrict armored maneuver. Without heavy equipment support, the probability of infantry groups breaking through Ukrainian defenses and covering 8km within 2 weeks is extremely low (relevant for the March option). While weather may improve in late April, the current lack of offensive momentum and logistical buildup suggests the probability of a breakthrough and entry into the town within 45 days is modest. The market price (22.5c) still carries a 'spring offensive' premium that does not fully reflect the current stalemate.
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Rule Risk
High conflict risk: The text specifies a deadline of December 31, 2025, yet the option and settlement date (March 2026) imply an active market, creating a critical date discrepancy. Furthermore, reliance on ISW maps introduces lag risk, and the clause allowing 'negotiated settlement' control adds subjectivity beyond strict map-based resolution.
Exotics
Moderately exotic niche. While geopolitics is common, betting on the specific tactical control of a minor town (Borova) by a specific date is a granular military simulation, far removed from mainstream public interest.
Divergence
The market pricing (22.5%) implies a nearly 1-in-4 chance of Russia entering Borova by late April, which diverges from mainstream battlefield reports (ISW/DeepState) describing 'offensive stagnation' and 'mud-related hindrances'. Given the current zero rate of advance, the fair probability is likely closer to 10%.
