[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest news regarding rumors of Samuel Alito's retirement and visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and spread for the 'February 28', 'March 31', and 'December 31' options. Combine this with the current Supreme Court term schedule and Alito's public statements to reassess the fair value and potential risks for these three timeframes.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest news regarding rumors of Samuel Alito's retirement and visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and spread for the 'February 28', 'March 31', and 'December 31' options. Combine this with the current Supreme Court term schedule and Alito's public statements to reassess the fair value and potential risks for these three timeframes.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search the key schedule for the US Supreme Court's 2025-2026 term (e.g., the recess in late June/early July) to verify if announcing retirement in 'February' or 'March' aligns with historical precedents for Justices. If Alito chooses to announce at the end of the term, what is the capital lock-up risk for holders of the 'December 31' option?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Search the key schedule for the US Supreme Court's 2025-2026 term (e.g., the recess in late June/early July) to verify if announcing retirement in 'February' or 'March' aligns with historical precedents for Justices. If Alito chooses to announce at the end of the term, what is the capital lock-up risk for holders of the 'December 31' option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison & Frequency Statistics: Search for the specific months and dates of Supreme Court Justice retirement announcements over the past 20 years (specifically Kennedy, Breyer, etc.) to determine if there is a precedent for 'early spring announcements' or if the vast majority occur at the end of the term in June. Use this data to judge whether the current 'February 28' or 'March 31' options are overpriced or undervalued by the market.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison & Frequency Statistics: Search for the specific months and dates of Supreme Court Justice retirement announcements over the past 20 years (specifically Kennedy, Breyer, etc.) to determine if there is a precedent for 'early spring announcements' or if the vast majority occur at the end of the term in June. Use this data to judge whether the current 'February 28' or 'March 31' options are overpriced or undervalued by the market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Politics|$60.2k Vol|

241 days 23 hrs

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? - AI Found +21¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.28 14:01

Top Undervalued

+21¢

December 31(No)

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? AI analysis: • +21¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the price has recently retraced from 44.5c to 30.5c, the market is still pricing in a signi...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

December 31

YesNo

36¢

64¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+21¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 22, 2026 - April 25, 2026, the Yes price for the 'December 31' option dropped from 44.5c to 31.5c as the market further digested media reports confirming Alito's clerk hires and lack of retirement plans, cooling speculative sentiment. April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026, the Yes price for the 'December 31' option plummeted from 53c to 31c. This was driven by reports from CBS and Fox News citing sources close to Alito, which confirmed he does not plan to retire this year and has already hired his law clerks for the upcoming term. March 8, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of the 'March 31' option steadily declined from 8c to 1.85c. As the deadline approached without an announcement, the time value eroded rapidly, dispelling earlier speculative rumors regarding his book release. Mid-February 2026, the 'March 31' option experienced a brief speculative spike driven by over-interpretation of Alito's book release news.

Divergence

There is a clear divergence. Mainstream media and legal experts generally agree (based on the hard fact of his clerk hires) that the probability of Alito retiring in 2026 is extremely low (under 5%). However, the prediction market is still pricing it at 30.5%. This overvaluation likely stems from prediction market participants' tendency to assign irrational premiums to political tail risks, such as sudden health issues or extreme intra-party pressure.